How the US Clean Energy Boom could go when Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' becomes the law

The CEOs of Solar Power believed that the billions of dollars that they invested in Republican congress districts would ultimately protect their industry from the threats of President Donald Trump to end the federal government's support for renewable energies.

But you may have a catastrophic wrong. The tax invoice that the Republicans of the Republicans passed this week is a “worse scenario for Solar,” said analysts from Investment Bank Jefferies to the customer in a note.

The legislation would terminate important tax credits that supported the growth of the industry and triggered a broad sale of solar shares on Thursday. The draft law still has to say goodbye to the Senate, where Jefferies expects the “non -processable” provisions to reverse.

In its current form, however, the tax invoice takes effectively a “sledge hammer” to reduce the inflation of President Joe Biden, according to the Jefferies analysts. The legislation would “increase an economic boom in this country that has provided a historical renaissance of American production,” said Abigail Ross Hopper, CEO of the Lobby Group Solar Energy Industries Association.

Hopper has recognized the tax bill as “intentionally ignorant” about the role that solar energy and battery storage plays as “deliberately ignorant” when fulfilling the electricity requirements of US consumers and intestines.

“If this draft law becomes a law, America will effectively hand over the AI ​​breed to China and the nationwide communities are faced with power failures,” she warned.

Sun run In an interview on Thursday, CEO Mary Powell announced in an interview that legislation would lead to a loss of 250,000 jobs and increase electricity costs for consumers. The Solar installer on the roof had the worst performance of all time on Thursday, with the shares of 37%.

For his part, Trump asked the Senate to pass what he calls as “a large, beautiful bill” as soon as possible. “There is no time to waste,” said the president on his social media platform truth of the truth of social Thursday.

According to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Rhodium Group, companies have invested more than 161 billion US dollars in large solar and battery storage projects since IRA was adopted in 2022.

Solar and battery storage is the fastest growing energy source in the United States and, according to the energy information transfer 2025, makes 81% of the expected performance additives for the network.

However, the tax bill would basically kill the two tax credits that have done the most to enable the increase in solar energy. It ends the investment and electricity production credits for clean energy systems that begin 60 days after the law is issued or are put into service after 2028. This also applies to wind power that grows more slowly in the USA

“This will be a massive slowdown of the amount of clean energy that is added to the network,” said Ben Smith, deputy director of the Rhodium Group's energy and climate practice. The use of clean energy into the network could fall by 57% to 72% in the next decade.

Clean Energy projects can also claim tax credits next year if they receive “material support” from prohibited foreign companies. This mainly aims at projects that relate basic materials from China, such as glass for solar collectors or cobalt and lithium for batteries, said King.

“It really serves in our assessment as a de facto cancellation of the loan next year,” he said. The tax credit for production that has supported companies, e.g. First solar stays on the spot by 2031, although it is also subject to the restrictions of the foreign institutions.

The tax bill is “catastrophic” for the solar industry on the roof, said the Guggenheim analyst Joseph Osha to the customer. It ends tax credits for companies such as Sunrun to rent solar equipment to customers. About 70% of the solar industry in residential areas use leasing agreements, said Osha.

However, some Republican senators have pushed back legislation and at least aroused hope for the industry that the toughest provisions of the law become softer. Senator Shelley Moore Capito, Rw.v.

“I would expect that to change,” said Capito on May 13 to Politico.

In fact, GOP congress districts would be hit hardest if the loans were canceled. According to data from the Advocacy Group E2, around 81% of the IRA investments have gone to Republican districts.

The solar use would slow down at the same time, as the electricity requirement due to the construction of artificial intelligence calculus centers, purple industrialization and the broader electrification of the economy increases.

Renewable energies can be used the fastest to meet the demand now, since solar, battery storage and wind make up 92% of the electricity projects that are waiting for the connection to the network.

Natural gas demand is also increasing in the USA, but the waiting time for new turbines is five to six years if an order is now being ordered, Reid Ramdathsingh, analyst at the advisory company Rystad Energy. While growth is slowing down, solar and batteries continue to be used because there is really no alternative, said Ramdathsingh.

“The demand is for energy,” he said. “Gas is unable to meet this demand at short notice. The biggest alternative to this gas generation that we would need in the next few years are renewable energies.”