8 main questions for the industry

Of course it was too good to be true.

In the first 100 days of Donald Trump's second presidency, it looked as if the entertainment industry had only unleashed the enormous costs and relentless chaos, which unleashes global trade through its radical attempts.

Entertainment products such as films were freed from Trump's original “liberation day” tariffs, since they are classified as services rather than physical goods. The industry also took a certain certainty from the fact that film and series, similar to Big Tech, represent one of the strongest trade surpluses in the United States, as much more Hollywood blockbuster from abroad bring from abroad than with the slim income of the foreign content in the US After all-caps-the film business next.

“The film industry in America dies very quickly,” wrote Trump. “Other countries offer all possible incentives to pull our filmmakers and studios from the USA. Hollywood and many other areas in the USA are destroyed.

He continued: “That is why I authorize the Ministry of Commerce and the Association of the United States to start immediately with the process of introducing a 100% tariff for all films in our country that are produced in foreign countries. We want to go back in America!”

Minister of Commerce Howard Lutnick replied to Trump's statements by writing: “We are there.”

Jon Voight, whom Trump called one of his “special ambassadors” in Hollywood, is the instigator of the President's sudden interest in film production. Th.. The actor and his manager Steven Paul met meetings of Hollywood Guilds and Studios by a proposal to increase Trump for increasing US production with a domestic film. So far, the President seems to have interpreted this advice in the criminal language, which he prefers – tariffs as a bar and not as an incentive as a carrot.

From the global film industry, the early reaction is a predictable mix of fear and total confusion.

“Hollywood is a flagship industry, and it was naive to believe that it would not be influenced by Trump's broader tariff war,” says Henning Molfenter, the former head of film and television production in Germany's studio Babelsberg, who monitored international filming as large as the Russo brothers. Captain America: Civil War and Lana Wachowskis The matrix departmentsas well as Wes Anderson's upcoming function, The Phoenician programwhat will have in Cannes premiere. “But it is not clear what is influenced. Is it just films or streaming series? Are they visual effects, co-productions, international film financing? There is a great measure of uncertainty.”

Molfenter repeats a frequent chorus: “How could that work at all?”

The risk of washing a guideline that may not yet come about or not. Here you will find eight important questions that the industry will see as a potential ammunition to defend yourself against the characteristic blunt opening of Salvo by the President in the film sector.

Which films are made by tariffs and will it be retrospectively?

The studios have been shooting their biggest films overseas for years to use visually breathtaking foreign locations and generous discounts and tax incentives to reduce their production costs. Paramount's Mission: impossible – the last billingEven after Cannes came in Great Britain and other areas to compensate for the high production budget. Warner brothers and legendary pictures' A Minecraft filmThe largest blockbuster from 2025 so far was mainly filmed in New Zealand with some production in Canada. Likewise, James Camerons Avatar Franchise, supported by Disney and completely filmed in New Zealand. Marvels Avengers: Doomsday Production in London recently started. The list continues.

Would Trump's tariffs apply retrospectively to films that have already been shot or have already started production? In this case, the costs for the studios could be enormous. Approximately 45 percent of A Minecraft filmThe global cash route of 875 million US dollars -the 400 million US dollars that it deserves at the US box office -could theoretically be susceptible to Trump's 100 percent tariff.

And how will the Trump government classify films that are “produced in foreign countries”? Does the inclusion of a scene outside the United States qualify? Does a certain percentage of the budget of a film come from international production incentives? So far, none of this is clear.

What about Netflix?

Trump's first social media missives mentioned only “films”, but many in the industry assume that a entertainment tariff would also apply to series production. That would be a big blow for Netflix and other streamers – Amazon, Disney+, HBO Max – that were built on a model for the use of local production in a global subscriber base. Would have to pull Netflix Squid gamePresent Leaf And The crown From his US service or facial duties? And how would tariffs even calculate for streamers who offer US customers countless foreign titles? How much of the US subscription income from Netflix can be assigned to non-produced shows?

Would a tariff bring production back to the USA?

Trump is not everything wrong when he says that film production in America is “dying”. A report last month by Filmla, the non -profit group, which takes over the film permits for the city and the district, showed more than 22 percent from January to March of this year. More than a year after the two strikes that have brought the US film and television business to a standstill, production has not returned to strength, while production has simply run across state borders-Marvel has shot many of its biggest titles in Atlanta. She used the 30 percent tax loans from 30 percent-gives two doubts in London, in London, in London, a six-Mady Mady Mady Mady Mady Mady Mady Mady Mady Mady Mades.

But would a film tariff actually bring back film production? The main reason why the studios and independent go abroad to shoot is money. To make a film in the United States that does not give tax incentives for federal tax in Great Britain, Europe or Australia can be 30 to 40 percent more expensive. In addition, the costs for US crews that are more expensive than their international colleagues – partly in the strength of the American film and television unions – and it is unclear whether a tariff would be sufficient to bring production home.

Without a domestic discount to compensate for the lost incentives abroad, the increased costs of filmmaking in the USA will probably mean that studio films become smaller – or more digital, with more volume and green screen recordings or more use of artificial intelligence (although the use of AI could have strict restrictions).

For small and medium -sized independent productions, a tariff could simply mean that these films are not made.

How will other countries react?

In view of the tariffs on the day of liberation, many countries only had a limited recourse to retaliation, since the US trade deficit with physical goods in almost all nations is so enormous. This does not apply to entertainment. According to MPA, the USA exports almost three times as much conversation as it imports. Figures from the European Audiovisual Observatory, a thinking factory in the media industry, show that US films made 71.1 percent of cinema registrations in Europe in 2023. A tariff tariff reaction of the international governments would increase the award of US films abroad and, for Hollywood, which still has difficulty recovering from a postcovid treasurer, it could be devastating.

What happens to the foreign sales business?

It has always been a difficult business to buy foreign films for the USA. Trump's tariffs could make it almost impossible. Will the small number of successful international film buyers in the USA – Neon, Mubi, Sony Pictures Classics – still afford to buy and publish the best French, German and Japanese films in North America if they are cost twice as much under Trump's tariff? What would it mean that American intellectual life is effectively reduced by a large part of the best cinema in the world?

What about post -production?

Just as they have created production incentives to lure films on their coasts, many foreign governments offer similar discounts for post -production work that were carried out within their borders. Would Trump's film tariff also target after production after the production that has been completed outside the United States? If so, what would Weta FX- and Weta workshop, the Netflix -Scanline -VFX (in Canada and Europe) and the Double Great and Framestore Great Britain? More than any other corporate sector, post -production has become really global. Can Trump put an end to it?

Can international co -productions survive?
In its ongoing struggle for survival, the indie film community learned to use each tool available to make their films-and mostly this meant shooting abroad for discounts and using foreign subsidies through co-production arrangements. Brady Corbets Multi-Oscar-nominated indie triumph The brutalist -For only $ 9.6 million, it was probably not possible in its finished form if it had not been set up as a Hungarian-ougium-COPOPORT, several tax incentives and production subsidies were used and was rotated in cheap-budapest-cost Budapest. Mid-budget action films-so quite every Gerard Butler, Liam Neeson or Jason Statham, whom you can imagine, rely on budget crews and tax incentives, mainly in Eastern European countries to get the numbers up and running. The majority of the new projects, which are packed and set up for the Cannes film market next week, include a form of international co-production or non-US turning work. Did Trump kill Marche?

Will that actually happen?

At this point in the Trump show, the known president president seems to pursue a script that is as tired as any other long-term process with low brows. How likely is it that Trump's film tariff will last in his initial, blunt and far -reaching form, or will he finally open like many of his other arts of the fool? So far, the markets seem to be only slightly concerned. Disney's share had decreased almost 1 percent when trading in the advance, while the discovery of Netflix and Warner Brothers lost by about 3 percent.