Trump and Carney meet in the White House in tightly observed encounter | Canada

The Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney should meet the US President Donald Trump on Tuesday in a closely observed encounter in the White House, which indicates the future relationship between the two countries and its two leaders.

At the weekend, Trump said that it was “extremely unlikely” that he would use military violence to start Canada, an important trading partner and a political ally. In the past few months, the President has repeatedly threatened to use the economic constraint to weaken Canada so far that he is concerned with Trump's wish to make it the 51st state.

“I think we will never get to this point, something could happen with Greenland … I don't see it with Canada, I just don't see it, I have to be honest with you,” he said.

Carney has created a large part of his federal election campaign about Canada's collective outrage over the threats of the US president for the sovereignty of the nation. During his victory speech last week, Carney used one of the most frequently delivered lines in his campaign and said that Trump wanted to break us so that America could own us.

“That will never happen,” he added to call from the crowd.

Carney also used his first press conference after the election to stand again to an idea that Canada was interested in becoming the 51st US state, a proposal that was repeatedly hovered by Trump.

“It is always important to distinguish the wishes from reality,” said Carney on Friday and referred to the firm conviction that Canada will never “ever pass” to the United States.

Colin Robertson, a former high -ranking Canadian diplomat that had numerous postings in the USA, said Trump's relatively warm tone since the election for the Canadian delegation was good, and an oval office less likely.

Robertson speculated that Trump's background as a real estate developer contributed to shaping Carney's perception – which he described as a “very nice gentleman” last week.

“Anyone I met in real estate, their favorite people are bankers. I suspect that Trump Carney will immediately consider a kind of” super banker “and will see him in a positive light,” he said.

“And Carney also has very careful not to be critical of it, except that we have talked about that we are a sovereign country, and so we do things. It worked very well for him. He pushed back when Trump questioned our sovereignty, but this thrust would be something that the president understands because he behaves.”

While a lot was made about Trump's unpleasant handshake with Carney's predecessor Justin Trudeau, the couple had a famous frosty relationship.

In Trudeaus last day as Prime Minister, Trump repeated him repeatedly as a “governor” of Canada. And while the President had sometimes called the Prime Minister a “very nice guy”, Trump also called Trudeau “two-faced” after he was unveiled on a video on the way to laugh at Trump's costs at a NATO summit.

Nevertheless, Carney's “antagonistic” rhetoric could be something that he could regret if he is confronted with the economic realities of Canada's economic realities on the United States, said Ryan Hurl, assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto.

“I suspect that he withdraws from the idea that our relationship with the United States is” over “, and he could change it to say that our relationship” changes “, said Hurl. “Trade negotiations are never completely static and hopefully he can imagine his negotiations with Trump as something that is better for Canada, and not only as a bending of the knee to President Trump.”

The headwind that the Prime Minister faces at the meeting of the White House on Tuesday is already sufficiently strong in both economic and partisans.

“If Carney introduces himself to Trump as concessions to preserve the trade relationship between the two countries, the conservative party will be able to take advantage of this,” said Hurl. “But if no agreements can be made, the Canadians will very quickly feel the political economic current.”

Carney carried out a large part of his short federal election campaign through the idea that Canada had to look for new trading markets. And while a promise to formulate the economic structure of Canada was welcomed by the voters, many of the structural changes that have been implied by such a political change – including the elimination of internal trade barriers and the acquisition of more Canadian products in foreign markers – will take advantage of time. “You can't just snap your fingers and change the port capacity. This is a generation project,” said Hurl.

In the meantime, Trump also starts national pressure: his decision to start a trade war with allies and enemies equally has harmed him in public opinion because American companies were ready to increase the costs for consumers.

“Trump has probably exaggerated in trade problems and we are now really starting to see the advance back. With questions about the trust of the consumers and the direction of the country, we can be part of the solution to Trump's self -inflicted problem,” said Robertson.

He pointed to Canada's “relatively strong” negotiating position when the two delegations meet in the White House.

The Canadian federal government has invested in increased border reviews, and fentanyl interceptions – the supposed pretext for Trump's tariffs – have continued to drop from a low starting point.

Trade officials assume that the United States will apply for changes to the USMCA free trade agreement, which will take place in 2026. Despite Trump's repeated claims that the United States do not need Canada's resources, experts say that potash, steel and aluminum remain important purchases for American farmers and manufacturers.

“And if you address the problem of milk and supply management, for example, we can ask ourselves:” What do you want here? Would you like more access to dairy products? “Ultimately, what is really important at this meeting, as my children would say, the” mood “between the two. This is almost more important than all processes that work for further development. “

Those who found the prime minister close to approaching the meeting to the meeting, as he did during the preparations for the federal elections: preparation for all possible iterations of the unpredictable president.

“With Trump, they are simply never sure what he is on in a day on which he is on and who was the last person who previously spoke to him in the meeting,” said Robertson. “But one thing we know about Carney was always two things: disciplined and prepared.”