Trump's lifelong belief in tariffs is about to face his acid test

Cnn
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President Donald Trump's lifelong conviction that tariffs can make the United States even richer by force other nations to bend to his demands is only reinforced by the early battle in his trade wars.

But this worldview stands in front of its acidity test in which the Americans feel their painful consequences.

Finance Minister Scott Bessent will meet this weekend in neutral Switzerland with Chinese officials, an event location that will give the most serious business showdown between the two superpowers of the 21st century an echo of the US cold war summit.

The conversations, which also include the US trade representative Jamieson Greer, represent the most critical moment in the previous trade wars. The global markets will hope for at least one temporary de -escalation in a collision that Trump escalated with his punishment of 145% for Chinese goods.

But Trump's strategy and rhetoric in the past few days are likely to complicate the mandate of better, since the president shows that his confidence in the tariffs is no longer a negative US growth and signs of impending care due to a dose.

In fact, he is convinced that it is not only that it is the right to conduct massive trade punishment against abroad, but also that it works.

“You want to meet,” Trump said on Tuesday about Chinese leader in the Oval Office. “They are currently not doing business and these ships are changing in the Pacific Ocean … By not acting, we don't lose anything.”

Investors, managers and consumers will hope that the president will take out a quick and saving exit from his trade wars. But Trump's statements indicate that tariffs may not be the means to an end, but the end itself. And while trade agreements are possible with the USA, conditions for foreign nations should be difficult and may never lead to a return to the global economy of the past.

Despite the days of forecasting a flood of trade agreements, the The administration has not yet announced any new breakthroughs, so that there is no real view that the tariffs will soon be collected shortly.

Trump's volatility and recording to change his opinion to a cent mean that none of his statements should ever be considered final. And the storm caused by his policy, which grows through the threat of a recession and the Americans begin to recognize bottlenecks in the shops, could leave no other choice than to step down.

The conversations with China will be of crucial importance to determine whether a soft landing for the trade wars is possible – and possibly avoid a greater economic slowdown.

Bessent announced Fox News on Tuesday that his original plan was to cool down the confrontation and that the conversations with Chinese officials represent the “missing piece” in the administration strategy and will take place on a journey on which he had previously planned to act with Swiss officials.

But China usually prefers complicated trade conversations that have been going on for months. And better warned that he had not expected to discuss “The Big Trade Deal”.

And A growing number of comments and social media posts from Trump suggests that he is not yet interested in changing a third of the path through a 90-day break in mutual tariffs.

On Tuesday, he played the expectations of a flood of trade agreements that he and Senior Adjutant had predicted to prefer for days after his finance minister said on CNBC that he would probably be “already” with top trading partners “this week”.

The president seemed frustrated by the tension he had helped to build. Perhaps this means that the trade talks get worse than the administration is ready to admit. Or Trump could have a different final.

“So, I wish you would keep up – you know, listen to ask:” How many offers do you sign this week? “Because one day we come and we will give you a hundred offers,” said Trump, before we tried to clarify that his preferred result of trade agreements could be constant protectionism. “And I think my people didn't make it clear. We will sign some offers, but much greater than that is that we have to shop for the price that people have to pay to shop in the USA.”

In Oval Office talks with the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, the President explained his vision to operate as a retailer who defines the price for each individual customer. In this scenario, tariffs are no attempt to draw countries in discussions in order to unlock acceptable business for both sides. Instead, they are a way to fix a levy for the right to do business with the USA that depend on how far every nation sacrifices their own economic interests to promote America. “Think of us as a super luxury business, a shop with the goods. You will come and you will pay a price and we will give you a very good price,” said Trump.

This means that the old world is gone.

Trump also said last month that his 145% tariff will “essentially drop, but it will not be zero”. And he recently told Time Magazine in an interview that he would see it as a “total victory” if tariffs – an economic unit that he has seen for decades with almost mystical awe – at 50%.

This may require the adaptation of expectations to global markets and in foreign capitals. Perhaps Trump is behind his long -term destination to return to the United States, before the occurrence of nations such as China and Vietnam in the global economy in the late 20th century. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that at least while he is in the Oval Office and that controls the most powerful economy in the world, the days of untamed globalization are over.

In addition, it becomes clear that the president does not see any future business as a reset to the global trading system. He wants to transform it so that the United States becomes a production and export giant, but does not buy things from abroad. “You have to sign business with us,” said the president. “If you want a piece of our market – we don't want a piece of your market. We don't take care of your market. You want a piece of our market.”

This is a stunning, impractical strategy, even if it shows an unshakable belief in the potential of the American people and the country's industrial machine. It ignores the fact that millions of Americans buy cheap foreign goods that would be more expensive if they are manufactured in the USA. Such a shopping force has improved the lifestyle of the middle and working class, which can now afford articles such as flat screen TVs and other electronics as well as important clothing. Trump's strategy also ignores the fact that other nations also make things buy global consumers – not only basic foods, but also luxury goods that are not endemic for the USA.

President's thinking may be radical, but he follows with other youngest comments – including his warning that American children have ever more expensive dolls and pens that indicate that, despite his vow to make America rich, the president provides for a new age of austerity measures.

In this sense, his comments on the trade next to Carney, who was just chosen to lead the country, who buys more US products than any other, an eye -catching insight into the opinion, as he thinks.

Having a president of giving access to the US market would be an extraordinary way to lead an economy of the 21st century. It can also be an illegal and unconstitutional application of executive violence.

And since Trump has a foggy understanding of how tariffs work -he sees it as a massive source of income for the government and not an enormous tax for American consumers -his approach would also go hand in hand with serious risks for the US economy.

Attempts to artificially control the price of goods usually causes deficiency and supply chain problems, and you can address inflation. Such a top-down system is also susceptible to manipulation. Trump has already given temporary tariffs for some technical products, including iPhones, and the share manufacturers who deliver the auto industry after lobbying from CEOs. Such interactions enable the president to put the spotlight and move the chess pieces around the board – a thread in many of his guidelines.

And in an administration with a remarkably cavalizing ethics setting, such as the ripe for corruption system. What should a company or a country prevent Trump from offering a favor or incentives that boost its companies in order to maintain preferred treatment?

“We don't want to steel from Canada because we make our own steel,” said Trump on Tuesday. “We really don't want Canadian steel and we don't want Canadian aluminum and different other things because we want to do it ourselves.”

In this way, components show that Trump does not simply drive a vision of self -sufficiency. He provides a real attempt to get other nations out of business to make them dependent on America. He may have received his territorial claim to Canada with Carney in the soft pedalation area, but his trade policy would have a similar effect.

“We don't really want cars from Canada. And we have set tariffs for cars from Canada, and at a certain point in time it will not be economically sensible for Canada to build these cars,” said Trump in a comment that had appealed to the justification of his “American first” foreign policy in order to control smaller, less powerful nations.

“We have been torn down by everyone for 50 years, and we just won't do that anymore. We can no longer do that, and we cannot investigate a country,” said Trump.

He says this for decades: as a businessman, as a candidate and now as a second -term president. It is a narrow and cynical view of the world. But it could be time for Trump's critics to accept that he really means.