2025 NBA Playoff chances: 'Time for the' dogs to have their day '

In general, the past few months have been fantastic for public betting. They regularly cleaned up favorites in NFL chances and then made a bunch of cash for favorites in March Madness with.

It took much longer than the expected profit manufacturers, but the pendulum finally swung – at least for a few days – on NBA playoff chances. Outsiders are 5: 0 (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in the first five rounds of the second round.

“I'm not so surprised, and the reason why I say that is that we have won a lot of chalk in the past five months, with football and the NCAA tournament,” said Johnny Avello, director of draftkings Sportsbook. “There will always be a time when the guard changes. This was the time for the 'dogs to have their day.”

The run of upsets creates interesting bets for the NBA playoffs. Avello helps more in these prospects.

Switcheroo in the second round

It all started on Sunday with game 1 of the Indiana Pacers-Cleveland Cavaliers series. The Pacers were 8.5-point road outsider and immediately won 121-112. Then it took on Monday and Tuesday:

• The New York Knicks, also 8.5-point outsiders in game 1, shocked the Boston Celtics 108-105 in extra time.
• The Denver Nuggets, 10.5-point player 1 outsider, sank the Oklahoma City Thunder 121-119 to Aaron Gordon's Final Seconds 3 pointer.
• Golden State unloaded Minnesota 99-88 in game 1 with the 6-point road outsider of the Warriors.

In all four second round games, outsiders won the first time that this happened in the NBA. And for a good measure in Pacers-Cavs Game 2 on Tuesday, Indiana from 20 Down gathered and won the Pacers 5.5-point dogs 120-119 with a 3-pointer Tyresian Haliburton.

If beds can most likely take advantage of, the advantages are on the Celtics and the thunder. Before game 1, Boston was a strong favorite to win the series against New York, while OKC -700 won the series against Denver.

Now they are Celtics -340 and Thunder -290.

“Now beds have the opportunity to bet two favorites at a much shorter price. And they do. We'll see a few Celtics money and an OKC money,” said Avello.

And the opportunity is not just betting with straight betting.

Favorite

Oklahoma City set up the best record of the NBA with 68-14 SU and then swept in the first round Memphis 4-0 Boston was 61-21 SU in the regular season and sent Orlando 4: 1 in the first round.

The two teams who win their second round series could be worthwhile to give the chances of being worth their time. And if you really want to become a frisky -there is a better chance that you will lose your bet, but the payment is better if you win -you could even add Cleveland, which was opened as the favorite of the -400 series against Indiana and is now an outsider of +175.

But Avello recommends caution.

“It is there for beders and some are done,” he said. “You probably feel confident in the Celtics. It is difficult to believe that the Knicks could beat the Celtics. But the problem of being safe in this Parlay bet is that you don't feel so good in the other two teams.

“OKC is just starting with the Cavs and is the same. In addition, the nuggets have been in this position lately. They have the family tree.”

In fact, Denver won the NBA championship in 2023.

“I think we will see more money for the Celtics, easily with the others or just classified the Celtics,” said Avello. “Two or three of them don't seem to be so safe in the eyes of the beders. I don't know if they feel that outside the Celtics series.”

Two-way betting

Thanks to the outsider of the second round, there is another option: both sides in series opportunities.

“We saw how customers bet the Knicks and Nuggets at +550 or +500 before game 1 pretty well,” said Avello. “If you have taken +550 with the Knicks and can now be with the Celtics -340, you can leave your place. You sit down in a guaranteed place where you cannot lose.”

The operational words there: “Can't lose.” This means that the worst case is to reach the profit threshold, and the other scenario is a few hundred dollars.

For example: If you pick up 100 US dollars for the Knicks +550 in front of the series, you can now return to the Celtics -340 for 340 US dollars. When New York wins, they win 550 US dollars minus the 340 US dollar, the Celtics bet loses a total profit of 210 US dollars. If Boston wins, they would win 100 US dollars, but lose 100 US dollars for the Knicks bet, so they would break out.

And if you wanted to include a small profit, you also have a narrow window there when you do the math.

But let's be honest here: these strategies are only if they are completely risk avers. And if you bet a hundred dollars on the Knicks +550, then you are not risk avers. You have done it because you want to turn a little into a lot.

So you are probably better off to skip all of this math. Let it ride and hope that a kink or nuggets is upset.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for Fox Sports and Senior Reporter for Vegasinsider.com. He previously worked for cover. Follow him on Twitter @Patricke_vegas.

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