The latest US inflation report and what it says about the economy under Trump tariffs

The inflation boost, which has followed consumers in the past three years, has decreased.

However, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may negate new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that President Donald Trump's continued claim that there is “no inflation” in the US economy.

For the period that covers the last 12 months, analysts predict an increase of 2.3% – hardly any evidence of the lack of inflation, although this would be a slight decline compared to the pace of 2.4% observed in March.

It is true that the average price growth per month was negative in March. Analysts forecast a monthly increase of 0.2%for April.

These rates are made synonymous with pre-pandemical steps.

But even if the price growth has slowed down from the bidea era, consumers now report to an unprecedented degree of uncertainty, which often affects the headlines of Trump's tariffs that could affect the company's profit.

“The tariffs are now over the heads of the consumers, whereby the mentions of tariffs reach an all-time high”, in which the conference authority, which published a precisely observed monthly consumer sentiment survey, reported at the end of the last month. “Consumers expressly mentioned concerns about increasing prices and the negative effects on the economy.”

Trump is right to say that the gasoline prices of a year ago decreased: Today, regular lead -free fuel supply costs around 3.14 USD per gallon, compared to around $ 3.62 in the previous year this month, according to AAA. The total energy costs are also slightly, as state data show.

However, the growth rates of the food price remain increased. While the costs for eggs decreased in the past few weeks, they probably kept the speed of the price category “Eating at home” higher. But eggs were not the only contribution to participants: the prices for the beef wood meat have increased while the milk prices are breastfed.

In addition to these essential categories, it would be wrong to say that inflation was fully tamed.

The “core” inflation measure, which extends food and energy, rose by 2.8%in March, and the analysts expected the rate to remain in April. It was expected to increase from 0.1% to 0.3% monthly.

A big culprit is housing: a third of the consumer price index consists of protection costs, and these have increased further, although not as quickly as during bidges. While the pace of the 12-month rental growth has slowed down, 4% corresponds to the heights that can be seen before the start of pandemic. The official level of the BLS for total living costs is also 4%and higher than before pandemic.

There were probably some effects of tariffs last month. Last week analysts to the customers said that they expected the car prices “” due to the anti -front charge in anticipation of higher prices of tariffs.

In general, uncertainty continues to rule outstandingly. In the remarks on Monday, Adriana Kugler admitted on Monday: “It is currently difficult to assess the underlying growth pace of the US economy”, especially because Trump's tariffs continue to distort business data, she said.

Kugler's statements were prepared with China about mutual tariffs before the announcement of a stand-down rescue capacity on Monday. Nevertheless, the heading is expected 30% compared to 145% that the US imports in Chinese imports will pull the prices up.

The latest report from the Yale Budget Lab estimates that despite this lower tariff rate, consumers are still exposed to an average effective tariff of 17.8%, the highest since 1934.

“In view of these expected price increases, real income will decrease and operating costs will increase, which causes consumers to demand less final goods and services and companies to demand less inputs,” said Kugler. “Ultimately, I see the USA as probably less growth and higher inflation.”