Putin only showed Trump how little he needs it

Kyiv, Ukraine
Cnn
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“The basic causes of the conflict.”

These were amazing words of a man who is said to be on the way to peace.

But it is the nub of the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which has to be solved for peace after two weeks or three months, depending on how they count, after the increasing pressure on an immediate, unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Unbot that the Kremlin head in a music school on the coast of Sochi takes this episode of the calls on the Sochi coast and has returned to the start -to his wrong story about this war of choice, which is triggered by NATO too quickly.

Five other, different words came hours, which were reproduced in Putin's ears, while he spoke to US President Donald Trump for two hours.

“It is not our war,” said Vice President JD Vance earlier. Vance repeated his role as a harbinger of the very bad news for European security and endured this remarkable non-observance: the United States could probably withdraw from the war-both from diplomacy and the help of Ukraine-, unless Russia makes steps to a peace agreement that it does not want to cleverly. Washington, who withdraws back, is exactly what Russia longs and to earn this dream result, it seems that Putin has to do absolutely nothing, the bar continues to wage brutal war.

Moments after the call Trump already sounded like a man who resigned from the fight. Five days earlier, he was the febrile broker who was ready to close the hostility between Putin and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky for a meeting in Turkey. But after his Monday call with Putin, he simply said that Ukraine and Russia should speak directly: “How only they can.” He even passed on the task as a possible event location to the house of the new American Pope, the Vatican. The United States may not be quite out of the process, but it speaks as if someone else is running it.

The last 10 days vividly remembered how little Putin Putin really needs potus or his consent. And the logic is simple.

The best part of the Three Years' War have undertaken the state media of Russia to its audience that they are conflict not only in conflict with Ukraine, but also with the entire NATO, including the United States. Trump's presidency has created a small window in which the Kremlin could divide into a better position or even relieve the pain of some western sanctions. But it does not change the central calculation or message of the Kremlin: This is an existential war if it restores priority abroad. The Russian people were caused so much pain and loss due to amazing war injuries that the delivery of middling could significantly restrict the longevity of the Russia's leadership for poor results. This is not a war they are seen from.

The limits of what the United States of Russia can currently offer in terms of leverage are visible from space. Yes, the United States could escalate sanctions, even, as Trump thought about last week, and “secondary sanctions” against Russian financiers, the oil buyers of India and China. But that would lead to another trade -like crack with world powers with which Washington has just done well. The United States could alternatively alleviate sanctions to persuade Russia into concessions. But these children's gloves would annoy their European allies and probably falter without the practical support of Europe.

All further steps to cause Moscow pain would probably mean that Trump would have punished Russia further than his predecessor Joe Biden. This is not the Maga geopolitical game plan. It would deepen us into a war in which there is, frankly, there is no end in sight until one side sees stalls or drastic changes in political leadership.

Ukraine in 2025 is a bleak view. However, the central principle of European politics was the best choice in a world full of horrible options: Moscow could only be forced to reduce its goals if it saw an infinitely taken NATO beforehand. Its economy, reserve assets, workers or hardware could stall – only you have to stutter for the war machine. It is bleak, but Europe has little choice. Ukraine has no choice at all.

Trump had the feeling that he had a choice. In a long -term investment in a conflict with an enemy with which you want to prefer, his business sense in a conflict in a conflict cannot be earned. There is no deal here. Putin doesn't buy anything; He tries to conquer and take. Trump has nothing to sell, blocks the support of the United States for its traditional allies. There is no way that Putin and Trump can both win and keep their stature.

The American leadership has built something different for decades than good, small offers. Its benevolence in ally, huge soft power and military hegemony has left the world's largest economy with an unbeaten currency – even a very good thing.

But Trump looks at America's role as smaller. This may be the moment in which Trump finally understood Putin as someone who does not strive for his consent or loyalty and stepped down. If this is the case, the United States has also withdrawn from decades of calling the shots, leaving the limits of their focus and their power and the most important peace agreement to a Hagel Mary pass in the Vatican since the 1940s.