Hotter days, higher crimes? Investigation of the connection between summer and violence – Vanguard

When the temperatures rise and the schools left for the summer, law enforcement agencies across the country often report on a noticeable increase in crime. This seasonal trend raises important questions: Is the increase in criminal activities bound to the summer months or are other social and ecological factors involved?

1. Lt. Kevin Holbrook from the Gainesville police department said that it was typical to increase all crimes in summer and in the hotter months.

“Weather, time and location everyone plays a factor in the numbers,” said Holbrook, adding that an increased activity outdoors and the lack of supervision of young people during the school breaks to contribute to this trend.

“Cities like Gainesville have a high tourist population due to the Lanier -Lan. Obviously, the likelihood of crime will be higher with a greater influx of people.” – Kevin Holbrook, police department of Gainesville 1. Lt.

Research also supports a possible connection between heat and aggression. A study entitled “Quantification of the influence of the climate on the human conflict“” Marshall Burke and Edward Miguel found that deviations from the average temperatures and the precipitation level significantly increase the risk of conflict.

While the overall violence has decreased overall in recent decades, the data from the summer of 2024 showed a slight increase compared to previous months. According to the Center for American Progress, gun violence increased in summer, although the increase was smaller than in previous years. Large cities such as Atlanta, in which seasonal crime spikes can typically be seen, have reacted with initiatives such as “Operation Heat Wave” to alleviate the trend.

Nevertheless, some experts warn against simplifying the connection between heat and crime. Dr. Douglass Orr, head of the criminal justice at the University of North Georgia, argued that there could be a correlation, but there is no direct relationship between cause and effect.

“If we returned to the last ice age, people were more violent than things warmed up? Did most of the societies erupt when things got hotter? No,” said Orr. “There are many other context -related factors in many of these things that you have to take into account.”

Orr emphasized that climate effects are not distributed uniformly and that the crime rates are influenced by numerous other diseases.

“The crime has dropped since the nineties. If they would say that it is up to date, they would probably see a small climb,” added Orr, “but on the whole since the nineties the violent crime has been at the deposition, regardless of everything they can see in heat or climate change.”

Orr also questioned the logic behind the attribution of increased aggression of summer heat.

“If you want to say that the heat is due to aggression in summer, have you checked the people who overheat your houses in winter?” Orr said that more studies are necessary to remove distortions.

In the end, experts end up, although there are indications of changes in seasonal crime, the data is anything but conclusive. Wider social dynamics, economic pressure and community infrastructure can play a crucial role than the season itself.