Trump's promised “golden age” for the US economy has a chaotic start | US economy

Donald Trump promised to initiate a new “golden age” for the US economy – one with lower prices, more jobs and greater prosperity. This week his first quarter report came and the new age has a chaotic start.

The gross domestic product (GDP) shrank for the first time in three years in the first quarter and became abruptly negative after a chastic growth, since trade distortions and weaker consumer expenses were dampened.

The US President needed every 43 minutes to distance himself from the dark reading that was published on Wednesday morning.

“Our country will be booming, but we have to get rid of the bids 'Overhang',” Trump wrote in his social media platform in social social media. “This will take a while, has nothing to do with tariffs, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. Be patient !!!”

Through Trump's stories, bad figures are the fault of Joe Biden – but this attribution does not extend to the good ones.

The strong jobs in March showed how “the private sector under President Donald J. Trump brings back,” said a statement by the White House. “It already works,” said the president the day he was published.

However, the less lively job report in April, published on Friday, led to a louder reaction. He wrote: “Just as I said, and we are only in a transition phase, just start !!!”

So what is that? Is the “golden age” of America good? Or does it take a while?

A diagram of jobs in the USA from 2021 to 2025

The growth in the first three months of the year – no matter how much Trump was to blame about 19 days, which he was not yet in office, was significantly questioned by the plans of the new government to revise the global economy. US goods imports rose by 41%, as companies that were specified for the tariffs, while consumer expenses for long-lasting goods fell by 3.4% because the mood was under pressure.

And the numbers of the first quarter asked worrying questions for the second. The activity largely weakened when companies were due to the lion's share of Trump's tariffs, which he only unveiled in early April. How these companies and their customers ultimately react to these tariffs – and the confusion around them – is generally expected to have a greater impact on growth.

Trump's irregular rollout of 10% tariffs for goods from large parts of the world and 145% for China have “changed the picture dramatically” since the end of the first quarter, Oliver Allen, Senior Us Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Any support for expenses for purchases before the tariff will soon relax after significant new tariffs have been imposed.

“The expenditure of consumers is also weighed up by a hit of the trust and real income from higher prices, while intensive uncertainties will suffer from the freezing of business investments and exports – especially according to China.”

A diagram of the quarterly change of GDP from 2021 to 2025

It is too early to say whether tariffs that exist the administration, the US economy revive, will actually put the stage for a recession: two consecutive quarter of the contraction. At Trump's clock, the landscape shifts from one day to the next rap, let alone a whole quarter.

To a certain point, Trump is right: Most of his tariffs are not responsible for the breathtaking reversal of growth in the first quarter. The United States only hiked the duties in China and imposed its ceiling 10% for many other countries last month, days in the second quarter.

The basics of a potential trump movement were not laid by the tariffs themselves in the early months of the year, but by the execution of the administration.

From repeated idiots and bumps of comprehensive tasks in Canada and Mexico to the announcement of “mutual” tariffs for dozens of nations, which were ultimately imposed on less than one day, widespread confusion and uncertainty is embedded in the world's largest economy. Companies inside and out are not happy.

Scott Bessent, Trump's finance minister, has shaped an interesting term for this game book with threats, theater and social media broadsids. “President Trump creates what I would call” strategic uncertainty “in the negotiations,” he said to a press conference on Tuesday. “If we develop further and announce business, there will be certainty. But certainty is not necessarily a good cause at the negotiation.”

As useful as Trump and his civil servants find “strategic uncertainties” in the trade negotiations, it has different consequences for those who have been repeatedly secured by them that they would quickly fall and try to increase a company on a market with executives who are locked in a war war with the White House, or to plant a harvest without knowing how the economic realities will be from the harvest.

A diagram of S&P 500 from 2021 to 2025

Trump returned to office last November after winning the support of rural and lower voters. He must preserve its basis if the Republicans want to maintain power in Washington during his second term.

Surveys indicate that these groups are affected. A PBS News/NPR/Marist survey published this week showed that 48% of the rural voters of Trump's handling of the economy disapproved. The same applies to 57% of voters with a household income of less than $ 50,000.

When concern grows, the US President tried to take the risks. In one of the special moments in another bizarre week, he seemed to suppress the threat from empty shelves.

“Well, maybe the children have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know,” said Trump during a cabinet seat on Wednesday. “And maybe the two dolls cost a few dollars more than normally.”

China has “ships that are loaded with things, of which many things – not all of them, but a lot of it – we don't need it,” he continued.

It is usually the American consumer and not due to your president to decide what you do and not have to buy. For a man whose happiness and image are based on striking consumption, the comments seemed to be very out of the brand. “Skimp on the Barbie” read the front page of the often trump -friendly New York post. It is still early for Trump. But the argument “overhang” of bidges is thin. It is due to the US voters, not their president, to give a judgment on his economic processing.