Assisted deaths could be over 4,000 in the 10th year after the change in the law

The number of assisted deaths could be more than 4,000 in the 10th year after the law came into force in England and Wales if the MPs correctly vote for it, according to a review of the directive.

The estimate is part of the official assessment of the consequences carried out by civil servants to inform MPs if they discuss whether assisted dying is permitted.

Initially, it was said that the upward numbers were low, but would probably grow over time.

The consequences stated that the total number of assisted deaths of 164 and 787 in the first (half) year of service between 1,042 and 4,559 is estimated in 10 and takes over a start date for the policy from October 2029.

The upper estimate of a little more than 4,500 assisted deaths would still make up less than 1% of all deaths, the document says.

The consequences also offers a financial analysis of the associated costs and savings – it is not a document that goes into ethical or philosophical arguments for and against politics.

It comes when the legislation returns to the House of Commons later this month with a crucial vote that will determine whether the legislation is expected in mid -June.

In the first six months, the savings for the NHS could be between around 919,000 GBP and 10.3 million GBP.

This number includes hospital care, basic and community care, hospice, medication and other nursing costs that someone who decides for assisted death would not be needed.

By the time of the system for ten years, the savings could be between 5.84 million GBP and 59.6 million GBP.

But there will also be costs. The occupation of a supported dying service could cost more than 10 million GBP per year within a decade. And the training costs in the first six months alone could be over 11 million GBP.

An assisted death would probably affect six health and nursing staff who work for 32 hours.

This could take the staff away from the existing services, but the general effects were uncertain.

And every committee that checks cases that include a lawyer, psychiatrist and social worker could cost £ 2,000 a day.

Overall, it was not possible to calculate whether the costs predominated or vice versa because there were too many uncertainties.

The Ministry of Health and Social Affairs said that the government was neutral on this topic. It is said that the document has been produced to ensure that all laws that pass through the parliament is “practical, effective and enforceable”.

Kim Leadbeater, the Labor MP behind the bill, said she was grateful for the work that was done to assess the consequences.

She said that she was still firmly about the view that the general effects of this long overdue reform are to make the end of the lifespan in England and Wales more compassionate and much more secure. “

In conversation with BBC Radio 4's Today Program, she said: “For me, the end of the people at the end of their lives helped me to give people a choice if they are faced with an incurable illness, the human costs, it is not about pound and pence.”

But the baroness Tanni Gray-Thompson, a former Paralympier and member of the House of Lord, who has refused to die, said: “This assessment shows how supported dying and other people in need of protection with serious risk by offering financial incentives for an overwhelming and underlining NHS readiness.

Leadbeater said today that the admission criteria under the draft law were “extremely strict”.

She said, “You have to be terminally ill. Several protective layers are installed in the law, including a multidisciplinary expert body.

“So we judge mental performance, we check for compulsion at every level of this process to ensure that this is the clear and defined sound desire of the person who is terminally ill.”

She said that in the calculation “it was only incurable to live adults who have less than six months to live,” said. “The bill does not cover people with disabilities,” she added.

Prof. Katherine Sleeman, professor of palliative care at King's College London, said that the costs for the end of the lifespan were “very, very high” and added, “obviously when someone does not live the last months of life, it is lower”.

However, she warned that the numbers were estimated in the assessment.