Steve Kornacki's guidelines for horses to see, winning the best storylines, favorites and more

From a dramatic point of view, the 151st Kentucky Derby after the three-way photo of the past year has a difficult action. However, the edition on Saturday has a fascinating handicapping puzzle with the possibility of a wild result and a nice payment day for those who can find out.

I would like to be one of them, and while my track record makes me a little less than an authority in these affairs, here are a few angles that I look at.

The favorite

His name is journalism and he gropes over the field in at least one remarkable metric. For every race that is directed by the country, each horse is assigned a Beyer speed evaluation based on an algorithm, with which deviations between different racing lengths and route conditions are flattened. The higher the number, the better the horse.

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In one of the two most important Kentucky Derby Prep races he won in Southern California, journalism achieved a Beyer of 108, all of which occupied in this area. If the best Beyer does not automatically translate to victory, but last year last year the four top finishers were all horses that came in the field among the five highest Beyers.

The knock on journalism? He put these numbers against tiny fields – only four rivals in each of these races. In the Kentucky Derby he will be exposed to 19 opponents and much more traffic than he ever had to fight.

Heat too much?

On paper there is countless early speed in this year's Kentucky Derby – horses who want to be at the top or just from him to do their best. The problem with a lot of speed is that these horses tend to pushing each other too quickly, go too early, burn them all out and open the door for a rival with fresh legs to mow them on the track.

Four of the five inner horses in this year's races have the potential to flash early speed (Citizen Bull, NeoEquos, American promise and Daytona). So also the East Avenue and Owen all mights who will start further outside. This is the recipe for a melt of pace, and maybe even for someone who comes from the clouds to win at a large price. Sandman and sovereignty are the most advertised deep conclusions on the field; Tiztastic, Burnham Square and Gold of Gold will also come from afar and would all chase the dead panel into the air.

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Bob Baffert is back

The best-known coach in the horse race, the 72-year-old Bob Baffert, returns after a three-year ban on Churchill Downs. Officially, Baffert won the race six times (a seventh winner, Medina Spirit, later became a medication violation that triggered his suspension) and has the support of some of the most ambitious and profound owners of sport. It usually has the deepest list of Kentucky Derby prospects, although this year's harvest is a little underwhelmed – at least so far.

Baffert's entry, Citizen Bull, could lead to a decent price. It is happy to be in front and could therefore be affected if this hot pace develops. (Note: Baffert's other entry, Rodriguez, was scratched late Thursday. He is also a speed horse so that his outcome could increase the citizens' bull.)

Citizen Bull has the additional challenge of drawing the dreaded place 1, which has bumped inwards with the rail. The last horse that won from this place was Ferdinand in 1986. But Baffert's duo turned away at its own danger. Better than any other, he knows how to win this race, even if the Tempo scenario looks unfavorable-eswas that he once did with 21: 1 with was emblem in 2002.

The justified one

With Rodriguez, which scratches out of the race, Baeza will now join the field from afar outside the post. Don't be fooled by his late entrance: this horse is an important contender.

He got involved against his favorite journalism in Santa Anita Derby against favorite journalism and hired a fight, lost less than one length and set an impressive assessment of 100 speeds. Like journalism, he continues to take the pace and possibly be able to burn out when the horses burn out in the foreground.

The Japan factor

Japan is a relative newcomer to the international racing scene, and for a while it was seen as a performance to bring a horse to the Kentucky Derby field. However, the Japanese program has been used up in recent years, with the horses based in Japan in the Middle East and here in the USA

Last year Forever Young came within centimeters when he became the first Japanese horse to win the Kentucky Derby, and lost forever in a three-way photo finish. This year there are two Japanese runners who admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe, who admire the Daytona twice and seem to be the stronger of the two. But nobody knows exactly what to do from Luxor Cafe, who has done all of his races in Japan and never faces American horses. Video from his victories looks very impressive, but how good were the horses he beat? And will this form translate into the USA?

The best action

Lonnie Briley should never be here. The popular 72-year-old Louisian has been training horses since 1991 and had success, but mainly with cheap horses that races for small prices in racing backwater. Until now.

His horse, coal battle, may be missing the royal breeding of his enemies in this race, but that makes what he has achieved, only more impressive: an unlikely winning streak with four races in autumn and winter, from a small use with low delta-downs to a triumph into the rebel-Kentel-Kentel-Kentel. It has – by far – made him the most successful horse that Briley has ever conditioned.

Almost 15% of all wallet guests who have ever won Briley's horses have come from the coal battle in recent months. Before that, Briley had never come to the Kentucky derby in the distance, and only when he came here he opposed the chances. The chances of coal battle are long in this race (its speed numbers are on the light side), but even his rival trainers will probably smile if he can pull it out.

My choice (or as I call it, my annual death kiss)

I am still torn while I tap it. But I will share it together with the rest of the NBC Sports team around 6:30 p.m. on Saturday.