How Canada's Mark Carney plans to win Donald Trump

I was with him on Mark Carney's last day of a strenuous race to become a prime minister of huge and sparsely populated Canada.

It was his last advance not only to win, but also to get the majority he said that he had to assert himself to the chaotic territories and trading sampling of his “neighbors in the south”.

For someone who had seen Carney as a brain crowd, as a crisis management Central Bank governor a decade ago, the transformation into the public speaker was quite something.

I remember endless interviews that tried to get the governor at the time, to say something new or something that would make a good heading.

While this was a completely different Mark Carney, the descent in the crisis economy was also part of his sale.

Carney told his audience in Edmonton, Alberta, with the local hockey shirt from Oilers Hockey: “President Trump broke the global economy … America's leadership of the global economy is over. It is still in the game, but it is a tragedy and our new reality … in this trade war, just like in hockey, we will win.”

His followers called “Ellbows Up” and set them up, an indication of a stand -UP -UP -UP -UP -UP -UP -PONTACT in the occasionally rough ice hockey game.

“What we see in the whole country is that Canadians act in the name of other Canadians, stand up for each other, buy from each other, travel here …”

At his last stop in distant west, in the isolation of Victoria, Vancouver Island, with just half an hour of campaigns, Carney went “the connector” under the followers.

“As the assembled media will tell you, I put in prose,” joked Carney. “So I will rule in economics,” he said about the nerdy mathematical stress on the economy.

Under normal circumstances, part of it could be interesting for the wider world. Under current circumstances, the origin of his election victory, his approach to political design and the nature of his mandate could take critical importance.

When I catched up with him for the exclusive interview from BBC when the surveys on Monday close, he seemed confident but not a matter of course.

Mr. Carney's central argument remained consistent. He said he was the leader who spoke to Donald Trump's “betrayal” and threats to the Canada's economy and sovereignty.

It was illustrated by its last large rally on the US Canada border, with the ambassador bridge and a skyline of legendary engine companies in Detroit.

This bridge is the main artery of Canadian US trade. In this background of the two-way trade of the most integrated economies in the world, many efforts were taken, which are now shown at an unimaginable level. An unnecessary message of the liberal party leader about a changed continent.

The election result was amazing.

In 2025, the liberal party was up to 16% compared to 45% for the opposition conservatives in opinion polls.

The Conservatives from Pierre Poilievre not only made a victory, but about a total landslide.

However, after President Trump, President Trump, the national security tariffs in Canada caused a suspected role in fentany traffic and then his undiplomatic proposal that Canada should join the USA, the surveys tightened.

After Mark Carney had been elected Liberal Fiihrer eight weeks ago eight weeks ago, the liberals reached a consistent survey that they had driven to victory last week.

The election became a judgment in the presidential style that could be completed with Trump.

Poilievre was fundamentally weakened by earlier overtures to the US President and his style of government.

Carney took the voters on the left and was afraid of a conservative government that was reinforced by Trump.

And the liberals in Quebec won the support of separatists who were more concerned about Canada's independence from the United States than from their own constitutional status in Canada. There is nothing more uniform than a credible external threat.

Carney gave me some references to his strategy during his interview. He spoke of a “Win -Win partnership” with the USA and recalled the president that Canada was the “largest customer” of 40 of the 50 US states and an important supplier for energy and fertilizer.

He also told me that he “could possibly deliver critical minerals”. This was noticeable to me as a negotiating tactic, to which Trump was fixed elsewhere.

Canada has extensive resources of critical minerals and would be a much more reliable supplier in the West than many other nations. However, Carney implicitly suggests that his country can make a deep strategic decision here, for example, to develop it with Europe rather than with the USA.

In any case, the prime minister will use the external threat to try to change the Canadian economy. Even when granting an interview to BBC News, it was clear that he looked at a critical need to diversify trade and strategic alliances. Defense partnerships are now on the cards.

He seemed to be recognized that a blocked Canada-Uk trade agreement could be accelerated.

On Friday, he opened the historical announcement that King Charles would personally reopen the Canadian parliament at the end of the month. This has not happened since 1977. It corresponds to the Canadian constitution, but it is also a breathtaking claim of permanent independence from the White House.

All roads now lead to the G7 summit, which organized in Alberta in mid -June in mid -June and brings together the seven largest economies in the world that dominate global trade and the international financial system.

Assuming that Trump comes, it will take place in massive so -called “mutual tariffs” to most of the world within days after the break.

It is often forgotten that Canada and Mexico, if they free themselves from the fentanyl tariffs, are subject to this system with at least 10% tariffs, according to advisors of the White House.

All of this occurs within a few days after a growing frustration of the American traditional allies with the entire “trade agreement” process.

Japan is becoming increasingly frustrated, and his finance minister is now open to Japan's unbeaten debt of the US government as a “card” in negotiations.

The EU did not get very far. Even Great Britain has indicated that a contract with Europe could be a more effective opportunity to increase the economy.

It happens that the tariffs have visible and tangible negative effects on US companies and consumers.

There is no great incentive to offer a lot, while the USA itself feels the inevitable inflationary consequences of its actions.

The flotilla of empty Chinese cargo ships and empty docks on the west coast of the United States will soon be shown in the economic data of an already shrinking US economy.

As a veteran of economic crises, which result from the uncertain experiments of the governments, Carney could be unique to point out how these situations assume. Many in the markets have been completely unimpressed with the advisors of the White House who have insured investors in the past few weeks.

But Carney also has his own challenges. He has just missed a majority in parliament, but decided to project this as a virtue.

He will reach for a “Team Canada” approach for discussions with the USA.

The Prime Minister of the oil-rich state of Alberta, who is a regular visitor to Mar-A-Lago, immediately announced steps to facilitate separation referendums.

This is a very complicated, domestic, continental and global environment economically and politically. Few would predict exactly where to go. Carney may have a very large part in it and not only for his own country.