Donald Trump's cartoon-like chaos leaves us the economy on an unstable course Heather Stewart

TEn Days from the USA-in Pittsburgh, Washington DC and directly opposite the Potomac River in Arlington, Virginia-Gait a fascinating snapshot of what feels like the slow motion that designs the largest economy in the world.

So many conversations were uncertainty and caution; And also fatigue, since companies and consumers weigh up any decision against the background of the chaos that runs out of the White House.

Even the President himself admitted last week that the economy was in a “transition period” and claimed that he had warned against it during his campaign. (With the challenge, the White House could not find any examples of when he had done this.)

The problem for Trump and his followers, many of whom remain strictly loyal, is that the transition period in question, which in the classic Looney Tunes character with a coyote, feels the air between the classic Looney Tunes in the air and immersion on the floor.

So far, the hard data of the US economy has been good. The salary billing report was strong on Friday, and the negative GDP in the first quarter was difficult to read due to the increase in imports when companies prepared in front of the tariffs.

There are hardly any signs of more dramatic signs as mass jobs or suddenly in consumer expenditure – although the current data acquisition mainly relates to the period before the “liberation day”.

However, take a look at the future -oriented surveys and there are clear signs of anxiety. The long -term consumer feeling in Michigan has just suffered its steepest quarterly decline since the recession in 1990.

Spend a lot of time talking to us consumers and companies, and it is very clear why: There are so many sources for political ambiguities that the future is not only uncertain, but completely unknowable.

There is a cliché that “hate hats”, but in truth, the same applies to everyone in the real economy: the company wonders what order of magnitude and how many people should be set, and the family who think about buying this refrigerator or booking this holiday.

It is not surprising that they are uncertain. Nobody, even in administration, can say with trust which tariff rates will be for imports from certain countries in July.

Even if the collective bargaining policy was crystal clear, their effects on prices would be difficult to measure – depending on how much of the costs, companies are willing to bear at the expense of reduced profits (or to “eat” how the Americans have and how much is passed on to consumers.

At the moment when the finance minister Scott Besser has admitted, the tariffs in China are now so high with 145%that they are an effective trade embargo.

Not every company will have the deep pockets and the global range of Apple to bend its supply chain from China to produce products for the United States elsewhere (in Apple's case, India). Instead, many try to find substitute substances that may be more expensive or do not exist at all. The lack of some products seem to be a pronounced way.

At the same time, there are sharp cuts in the federal budget budgets, many of which have an ideological broker, including Robert F. Kennedy JRS Decimation of the National Institutes of Health, short-term questions about unemployment and much longer-term concerns about the world's leading science basis of the US economy.

Some of the most heartbreaking conversations that I have had about aspects of Trump's immigration policy: The man who said that the six-year-old son of a Guatemala friend had stopped going to school if his mother was caught by the authorities while he was there, and the restaurant manager, who would be more difficult to rent Latinos because even fully documented workers were still able to.

These are primarily human tragedies, but they also clearly have an economic dimension. The credit assessment agency FITCH warned in a report last week: “The risks associated with mass shifts could include potential labor shortages, production delays and increased wage inflation, which hinder sales growth, weakens profitability and lowers the return on capital.”

Of course it is tempting to think:

Much more of the Real Economy effects have so far been from this widespread uncertainty – or maybe it is better to describe it for fear – from the details of Trump's politics.

Business owners told me that if they only knew what the final tariffs for products from the different countries in their supply chain were, for example, they could adapt over time.

It is not entirely from the question that a defined political position could arrive in the coming weeks.

Certainly, Bessent seems to try to maneuver the president to increase a number of “shops” (actually promise of concessions in exchange for tariff-arov-outs) with important economies.

However, the president seems to have such a love for the political drama – and such an inability to choose a course and to keep himself – that the ignorance of future politics seems to be the essence of Trump 2.0.

It seemed to be the mighty bond markets, which increased the cost of borrowing in us, checked Trump's initial “liberation day” driver and prompted the “break”.

However, if the time does not drag itself in sight, it probably does not come from Wall Street, but from Main Street – on high prices and empty shelves. As Trump then reacts, someone is a guess.