NBA playoffs: Why is the Road team so much success in the second round?

The four road teams answered the opening bell in a combined 5-0 start in the second round of the NBA playoffs. A small handful of factors explains the surprising development.

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Is there anything that can explain this strange phenomenon?

The second round of the NBA playoffs from 2025 atypically won with the higher street teams. In fact, the Indiana Pacers did it twice for a 2-0 lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers.

In the Rally of the New York Knicks, add the Boston Celtics in the other semi -finals of the Eastern Conference, and the Denver Nuggets beat the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Golden State Warriors, which exceed the Minnesota Timberwolves to open the semi -finals of the Western Conference, and the lower teams are a combined 5: 0 player.

Is this another data point that proves that the regular NBA season is not a real indicator of the strength of a team? Or is there something else going on here?

Yes, there are reasons.

It's a make-or-miss league

First of all, the regular season and the seeds it produces for the NBA playoffs is important.

According to our prediction model, all four higher seeds were preferred to win their respective series of the second round, and three of them had at least 75% chance to reach the conference's final (the Timberwolves were only a small favorite for the Warriors).

Some other trends that are involved here – others sustainably, others – have led to the disorders.

The biggest is probably the 3-point shooting. No matter that trainer ability or duty depth means almost nothing if a team cannot reflect shots.

After all, it is a make-or missed league.

In the five games in the second round, the road teams shoot to 3-point players much better than their opponents: 44.6% compared to the 26.3% of home teams. The Nuggets are the only road team that has not exceeded his opposition to 3 Series, and we will have more to say about them.

More calm is more rust

The NBA playoffs are exhausting. We see every year how teams lose games and series because their Star players collapse (for example, the Knick's players lost through injuries while they drop the semi -finals of the Eastern Conference 2024 into the Pacers).

The games are intense and the time between them can be sparse. Therefore, it can be very advantageous to end a series quickly because a team can rest players because they are waiting for the next opponent.

That was not the case this time.

This does not apply so much to the Pacers' Game 2 victory against the Cavaliers, but otherwise the four home teams had more calm than their opponent after the first round.

Basically, rest for the teams with a higher seed became rust, which may have contributed to the poor shooting exhibitions in game 1.

The most obvious example was on Tuesday evening: The Timberwolves had five full days after removing the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round, while the Warriors were only free for a day after they had seven games against the Houston Rockets after an epic win.

The Warriors shot 42.9% while doing 18 3s, while the Timberwolves only sank five to five with 17.2%.

The back bouncer is still important

About a decade ago, there was a large push with the analysis to prevent the value of the back rush. What was it important if Andre Drummond cited the league in the rebounds for five seasons in a row if his team was often worse on the floor with him?

What many people missed, however, was that the revolution was not intended to eradicate the consideration of rebounds in basketball analysis. Rather, it should concentrate more on the team of the team, not on individual recovery.

So, yes, rebounding plays a team that has to make shots. The more chances for recordings (or the shots of the other team), the better.

During the regular season, six of the eight best teams in rebounds per game were also among the top 10 in Tracr, which used advanced metrics and other factors on both sides of the ball to calculate how many points per 100 possessions (offensive, defensive and overall) are better or worse teams with the league-cut club.

The Nuggets and Warriors ensured that they maximized in their victories in the game 1 and exceeded the thunder and Timberwolves by 20 or 10.

This was particularly useful for the nuggets that tried to shoot the ball against a Thunder squad who recorded a league-best defensive tracr and 68 victories in the regular season. The nuggets committed 18 downholstery as many as the thunder, but still managed the same number of combined field goal and free throwing as OKC.

Are the disorders continued?

Three-point shooting is a volatile statistics that can vary greatly from one game to the next.

It is highly unlikely that the teams with higher seeds will shoot almost 20% behind the bow than their colleagues with lower seeds. This harms the Knicks most of the four lower seeds (they hardly fled Boston with an overtime win, although they shot by 20.9% better on 3S).

The NBA playoffs' resting-rating-rust scenario will also stabilize when each of the series progresses and both teams have the same time between the games.

Then there is the rebound piece of everything. The great thing is that the rash is strongly associated with desire and effort: with enough hard work and willpower, every team has the chance to win the battle of the boards.

Large roles also play size and strength. The Nuggets led by Nikola Jokic should continue to have the advantage over thunder, but the warriors will have more difficult to emulate their issue 1 against the larger, physical wood twolves.

Of course, injuries can also throw a wrench in every series. Stephen Curry's longer absence could mark the end of the warrior boost against the Timberwolves. And the return of Darius Garland, Evan Mabley and De'andre Hunter could help the cavaliers to get on the right track in Indiana.

None of this intends to take the grit and resilience of the outsiders away in their victories in the first second round. If the games have taught us something, all four outsiders can assert themselves against preferred opponents, and it already ensures a fascinating second round of the NBA playoffs.

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