Is Home Court advantage still a factor in the NBA playoffs? The recent history says no

Athletics has a living reporting about the Warriors against Timberwolves In game 2 of the Western Conference semi -finals.

Throughout the season, the NBA teams are fighting for the best position in the playoffs. In the regular season, they grind over 82 games to get the best possible recording that, if you are good enough, give you the home advantage for one or two series or the entire post -season. It is a tempting incentive for teams that should be worthwhile, albeit for no other reason than to get the all-import series deciding game 7 in front of the home fans.

But what if the home advantage loses its shine?

It was a shock when the Cleveland Cavaliers lost play 1 against the Indiana Pacers at home. It was a surprise when the Boston Celtics lost a day later against the New York Knicks. Then the Oklahoma City Thunder blew her serial opener to the nuggets. When the Minnesota Timberwolves game 1 dropped to the Golden State Warriors, it was remarkable three days. All four top seed teams in the playoffs lost game 1 at home. It was an extreme outlier, but also part of a trend in the NBA in recent years.

Playing at home just doesn't mean what it used to be. This spring, the NBA teams in the playoffs are only 26-24 at home. This is the lowest percentage of the playoff at home teams since 1981 (the 2020 playoffs were in the bladder).

While the home teams were a game under 0.500 in the 1981 NBA playoffs, it was a blip. Next year, the home teams won about 60 percent of their playoff games and rose again every year on the historical precedent. In fact, the home teams won at least 60 percent of their games in 56 of the first 78 posts.

But not recently. Home teams have not exceeded the 60 percent threshold since the 2018 playoffs – even though they were nearby in 2022.

Home-Court advantage this decade also undermined this decade under critical circumstances: game 7. Playing the do-or-thas game at home used to be a ballast for higher seeds. They won 79.1 percent of 7 games in the first 73 seasons of the league. The home teams have only been 5-10 in a game 7. When the Warriors won in Houston on Sunday, it could hardly have been a surprise.

Of course not to Warrior's head coach Steve Kerr. Its development over the value of the home court advantage reflects the reality of the league.

When the Warriors were on the way to a third title in 2018 in four years, Kerr said that it was his top goal to get the head start of the home place for the playoffs. He rejected his value last month.

“I don't know that it is just as important” Kerr said. “I think the 3-point shooting is so variable. It feels in the old days, it was much more a crunchy, two point game. It just didn't feel like the opponent had the chance to suddenly get hot and take over the dynamics of the game.”

As Kerr said, the 3-point shooting has an impact on the changing structure of the league. Home-Court advantage began to disappear in the 2016/17 season when the NBA met its 3-point revolution and has not recovered since then because the 3-point volume has increased.

Accepting more than Road team has correlated with a higher profit percentage in recent years. In this post-season, road teams that took at least one more 3 pointer than the home team are 12: 9 and won with the same price as last spring.

Making more 3s has also become more important for teams to win on the way. That may sound obviously, but it wasn't always true. But as a 3-point volume in the league, a large part of the shooting profile of every team became and had a major impact on the games, the win of the 3-point fight became crucial to eradicate the lead of the home run.

In the four playoffs before the Warriors and Steph Curry took over the league, the road teams won 46.2 percent of their games in the four playoffs when they did at least one more than the home team. In the past four years 2016 to 2016, the road teams have won 55 percent of their games in the past four years before two Covid-19 appeared on playoffs when they did at least a 3-3 player than the home team. Road teams have won 60.9 percent of their games since 2022 when they did at least one more than the home team.

At least in these playoffs, this trend could be a balm for the title candidates who surprisingly settled in their second round. If the home advantage is no longer such a strength for you, it means that you can come back to your opponents and also steal it.

(Topto by Aaron Gordon, who has reached the gambling jumper in game 1 of the 121-119 win of the Nuggets in Oklahoma City: Aaron Oniveroz / The Denver Post)