The reports of the death of Chinese exports were very exaggerated Snapshots

China's exports conveniently exceeded the market expectations in April and rose by 8.1%compared to the previous year. Although in the year of 12.4% in the year, the reading was significantly above the consensus forecast for 2.0%. This cannot be explained by basic effects. The growth of the month to month was also positive at 0.6%. This growth rate actually meant that export growth rose from year to 6.4% compared to the young animal of 5.8% in the first quarter.

In the best case, the monthly trading numbers in China are often difficult to predict. Even after these standards, April has proven to be an extraordinary case in the middle of massive US tariff hikes that have inserted great uncertainties in forecasts. Overall, the conviction in the export forecasts of this month was quite low. And the selection of forecasts on the market was pretty wide.

The focus of the report of this month is understandably on the exports of China to the United States, which slowed down to -21.0% in April in April, compared to 9.1% in March in March. Although this is a great decline, it was still a much smaller shock than what many expected, in view of the 145% US tariff in China. And numerous reports of canceled programs to the USA. Since the de -minimis gap on packages that were sent from China to the United States were closed from May, additional resistance could occur.

As we explained in previous reports, the tariffs are already high enough according to a certain point to redirect the imports of goods with an available substitution product. However, a significant amount of China's exports does not necessarily have a slightly available substitution product. Therefore, importers will be forced to either pay the tariff and pass on the costs to consumers or to easily adjust this part of their business. Early evidence indicates that the former may take place. If this is the case, the imported country is more harmful.

Exports to other regions have also contributed to increasing the gap to a certain extent. Exports to Asean (20.8%) and Japan (7.8%) grew faster than in March.

According to the product, we recorded an acceleration of the Yoy annual growth for ships (12.1%compared to 2.1%in the first quarter) as well as smaller climatic drives for semiconductors (13.5%), HI-Tech exports (6.4%) and cars (2.8%). However, we have seen a slowdown in household appliances (5.4%), mobile phones (-5.0%) and toys (-5.4%).