College Baseball NCAA tournament 2025 Bubble Watch (May 15th)

Photo credits:
UVA head coach Brian O'Connor (photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire about Getty Images)

The last week of the regular season is just around the corner, which means that we are less than two weeks away from determining the official field of 64. The penultimate week of the campaign was quite influential for the bladder, with several teams moving in both directions, including a handful of new participants in the projected field.

In the following you will find Baseball America's latest Bubble Watch, in which we take a closer look at these teams that compete for bids. Conferences that are expected to take three or more commandments are first listed, followed by teams who urge them to give their leagues a second entry. Here you can see yesterday's projected field.

Acc

The ACC has reinforced its position behind the second in the entire areas after the list of forecast entries on 10 in Bas 64 was built up. In the last weekend of the regular season, nine teams are safely included in the NCAA tournament, with Duke the latest one that joins this group. Virginia is approaching Miami after a potentially wrong season, while Virginia Tech and Notre Dame have no time to do their case, but both still hunting. The hosting competitors remain plenty of and the bladder volatility increases when the selection Monday approaches.

Lock: Clemson, Duke, State Florida, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Should in: Virginia
To do work: Virginia Tech, Notre Dame

Virginia (30-16, 14-10; RPI: 60; SOS: 74)
The cavaliers still have to do work, but they have become closer to security after a weekend -Weep from Miami has pushed them into 14 conference winners and again into the top 60 in RPI. It is by no means a slam dunk resume, but Virginia, which concludes the regular season against Virginia Tech, could certainly do it in this direction. Win this series and the Cavaliers probably secure an offer. Let it fall and you will surely be out and only the ACC tournament left to save it.

Notre lady (30-19, 12-15; RPI: 47; SOS: 50)
The Irish knock on the door. A strong April raised her in the “First Team Out” position in the recent projection of BA in the RPI board. But 12 conference wins will still not be enough. The last series by Notre Dame in Miami is great. If two out of three can win, it would probably press into the field.

Virginia Tech (29-22, 11-16; RPI: 49; SOS: 25)
Sweeping Mercer does not delete the bigger problem: Virginia Tech has lost four in a row and only sits 11-16 in the league game. This is simply not good enough for an ACC large berth. Even if the Hokies take two out of three in Virginia this weekend, they would still sit on a shaky 13-17 record in the conference tournament. At the moment, BA Virginia Tech has on the outside, but we include them here because their path is not completely closed.

Big 12

The Big 12 officially completed one of the country's safest multi-bid leagues. Six teams are already safe and a seventh closed.

Lock: Arizona, state of Arizona, Kansas, State of Kansas, TCU, West Virginia
Should in: Cincinnati
To do work: State Oklahoma

Cincinnati (29-22, 14-13; RPI: 35; SOS: 23)
The Bearcats had the chance to complete a bid last weekend, but only fell briefly and lost two out of three on the TCU. Nevertheless, your resume remains strong – one -hole RPI, a top 25 SOS and 14 Big 12 victories. They are close. A victory in the home series against Kansa's state would probably do so. A series loss would not completely switch them off, but it would open the door again to enter the Big 12 tournament.

State Oklahoma (24-22, 12-12; RPI: 52; SOS: 16)
The cowboys are still alive, if hardly. Your overall record and your conference are behind the rest of the BIG 12 competitors, but with a top -20 strength of the schedule and a winnable home series against Arizona State, there is at least the chance of a puncher. Win this series and Oklahoma State can take the Big 12 tournament with a more legitimate shot to introduce yourself.

Big ten

The big ten have three teams that are trapped on the side, and the rest of the league adheres to the hope. Iowa continues to lead the conference, but did not do enough to completely shake his metric problem, while Michigan's follow -up path became darker after a harmful loss of the series. The last weekend is big.

Lock: Oregon, UCLA, USC
Should in: Iowa
To do work: Michigan

Iowa (30-17-1, 21-6; RPI: 66; SOS: 121)
Iowa had the chance to consolidate his reputation against Oregon State last weekend, but was unable to end the job, fall two games and tied the third. The result leaves the Hawkeyes in a practically the same place as last week: dominant in conference, everywhere else. With the No. 66 RPI and the No. 121 strength of the schedule, Iowas Résumé does not scream “at-Large”, but the title of the regular season since 1990-Bisher against Oregon-could give the scales in its favor. Losing the series and you will prove more at the conference tournament.

Michigan (32-19, 15-12; RPI: 56; SOS: 75)
The Wolverines needed a strong finish to consolidate their case, and a series loss to Nebraska made this path much more difficult. With a top 60 RPI, but a conference record that is in the wrong direction, Michigan is now facing a must-swing situation against Indiana to stay in conversation. Everything else would probably lead to you need a deep big ten tournament -if no climb of the conference tournament -to get in.

Sec

The SEC remains the standard carrier for depth, whereby 12 teams are now enclosed in the NCAA tournament field. The state of Mississippi is ready to become a 13th place with a further win of the series, while Texas A & MS shocking collapse against Missouri has completely closed the door in its high hopes.

Lock: Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt
Should in: Mississippi State
To do work: Texas A & M.

Mississippi State (31-20, 12-15; RPI: 32; SOS: 9)
Not much has to be said. The resume of the state of Mississippi is tournament caliber strong RPI, Elite SOS and a recently successful series victory against the rival Ole Miss. The bulldogs are on the doorstep. But she must End the job against Missouri this weekend. Win the series and you are there. Lose you and the conversation will be much darker again.

Texas A & M. (27-23, 10-17; RPI: 59 SOS: 12)
The aggies suffered the worst loss of the second season and probably one of the most shocking in years that were previously swept at home by previously gain-winning. The Fallout is serious: the RPI from Texas A&M has dropped, its league record is dark and Georgia sweeps or the SEC tournament to get in. Both scenarios feel very unlikely. What was once a trend towards a Résumé near the lock now feels irreparable.

Sun belt

Nothing has changed in the sun belt in several weeks. The top three of Coastal Carolina, Southern Miss and Troy remain stable, and there is no bladder movement behind it. The only option of this league adds another offer in a breathtaking conference tournament display of one of the teams not listed below. Therefore, this will almost certainly be a three-bid league.

Lock: Coastal Carolina, Troy, Southern Miss
Should in: None
To do work: None

To follow others

Big east

Lock: None
Should in: Connecticut
To do work: Creighton, Xavier

The big east picture continues to be diluted. What once looked like a two-bid league now seems to be towards a single representative towards the trend. Uconn stays firm in the field, while Xavier and Creighton slipped onto the wrong side of the bladder. Creighton has head-to-head series victories both Uconn and Xavier, so that a sweep about Georgetown this weekend and a potential piece of the title of the regular seasonal conference could be enough to push it into the field, but this feels like a one-bid league in this phase.

Big West

Lock: UC Irvine
Should in: None
To do work: Cal poly

One thing that we have created at BA in the course of the last month is the very precarious nature of the Largen Mid major offers. Cal Poly is very exposed to becoming a good example of this. The Mustangs looked like a potential two-seed less than a month ago, but now have a resume that hardly holds on the bladder. A single defeat in a series victory against CSUN harmed the metrics of the Mustangs, including their now Mid-40-RPI. It is still possible that Cal Poly will make the field as the second Big West team, it is now much more difficult.

Conference USA

Lock: Dallas Baptist
Should in: Western Kentucky
To do work: None

With a little help from other Bubble teams such as Xavier and Texas A&M, Western Kentucky returned to our projection by week 14 and was able to stay there when it ends his regular season by taking care of the business in a very profitable home series against the state of Jacksonville. Win that and Western Kentucky should dance alongside the potential host Dallas Baptist.

Southland Conference

Lock: None
Should in: UtrGV
To do work: Mcneese State, Lamar, Southeast -Louisiana

Baseball America was at the beginning of this week that the Southland was only offered one offer, with Southeasters Louisiana overlook the Odd-Man-Out and one of the first four teams that miss our projected field. The way we see it is the way to two offers: Both UtrGV and Southeasters Louisiana have to reach the league championship round. Do that and there is a real chance that both NCAA tournament entries could win. Everything that is short and the CVs and the CVs are unlikely to support a two BID year.

Final report

Riser

Herzog (ACC): Achieved blocking status
Virginia (ACC): Of “doing work” should be 'be' in 'being' in ''
Arizona State (Big 12): Achieved blocking status
Kansas State (Big 12): Achieved blocking status
Oklahoma State (Big 12): Moved into “work to do”
Florida (sec): Achieved blocking status
Kentucky (sec): Achieved blocking status

Faller

Texas A & M (sec): Moved from 'lock' to 'work to do'
Cal Poly (Big West): Moved by 'to' do work 'in' to do '”

Acc