Mabux: Bunker prices to continue next week

At the end of the 20th week, the Global Bunker Indices Mabux moved up. The 380 HSFO index rose by $ 20.50 and rose from $ 444.90/MT to $ 465.40/MT in the last week and again exceeded the $ 450.00 mark. The VLSFO index rose by $ 21.40 and reached 538.59 USD/MT compared to USD 517.19/MT in the previous week. The MGO index also added 22.25 USD and rose from USD 701.67/MT to $ 723.92/MT. At the time of the letter, a moderate downward correction was observed on the market.

Mabux Global Scrubber spread (SS) – The price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – remained practically unchanged and rose by $ 0.90 (from $ 72.29 to USD 73.19). The average weekly value of the index decreased by a symbolic $ 0.07. In Rotterdam, the SS spread showed an increase of $ 4.00 ($ 40.00 compared to $ 36.00 last week). At the same time, the average weekly value in the port also increased by $ 5.17. In Singapore, the price difference 380 HSFO/VLSFO dropped to $ $ 3.00 from USD $ 79.00 last week, and the average weekly value in the port added $ 12.66. There is currently no pronounced trend in the dynamics of the global and port -SSSSPREAD indices and values ​​continue to fluctuate significantly below the $ 100.00 mark (SS Breakeven). We believe that the dynamics of the SS spread will not give significant changes in the next week. For more information, see the “Differentials” section from Mabux.com.

Gas prices in Europe have decreased by about 20% since the heating period. The European Parliament has approved the European Commission's proposal for the extension of the EU gass storage goal around 2027. As part of the revised framework, the mandatory memory target was reduced from 90% to 83% to reach between October 1 and December 1st. A deviation of up to 4% can be permitted in the event of market instability. Nevertheless, the entire storage capacity in the Member States must not fall below 75%, even with the assumed exceptions and provisions.

From May 13th, European regional storage facilities were filled to 43.13% (plus 1.72% compared to the previous week and minus 28.20% compared to the beginning of the year (71.33%)). The trend towards gradual filling of gas storage systems continues. At the end of the 20th week, the European Gasbenchmark TTF continued its moderate growth: plus 1.001 euros/MWh (35.744 euros/MWh compared to 34.743 euros/MWh last week).

The price for LNG as a bunker fuel in the port of sines (Portugal) sank by $ 14 during the week and reached $ 720 per MT compared to USD 734/MT in the previous week. At the same time, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel decreased to $ 47 in favor of the conventional fuel, compared to $ 77 in the week before. On May 12, MGO LS was quoted at 673 USD/MT in the port of the sines. You can find detailed information in the LNG Bunker section on the Mabux.com website.

At the end of the 20th week, the Mabux market differential index (MDI) showed the relationship between the market bunker prices (MBP) and the Mabux Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) -the following trends over the 380 HSFO and MGO -LS segments:

• 380 HSFO segment: Rotterdam and Singapore remained in the overs assessment area, whereby the weekly MDI average values ​​rose by 2 or 1 points. The other two ports were undervalued: Fujairah recorded a decline in his undervaluation by 4 points, while Houston's undervaluation rose by 6 points. In particular, Rotterdam contributed a 100% correlation between MBP and DBP.

• VLSFO segment: Singapore has shifted to overs assessment this week, with the average weekly MDI rose by 12 points. Rotterdam, Fujairah and Houston remained undervalued. The MDI fell by 8 points in both Rotterdam and Fujairah, but rose by 5 points in Houston. Fujairah approached a 100% correlation between MBP and DBP.

• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam was the only overvalued port on this segment, with the weekly MDI rose by 1 point. The other three ports remained undervalued: MDI rose in Singapore for 7 points and 17 points in Houston, while in Fujairah it was 6 points. Rotterdam remained almost 100% correlation between MBP and DBP.

During the week there were no major shifts in the total amount of overvaluation/undervaluation, apart from Singapore's move to the overvalued zone in the VLSFO segment. No significant adjustments are expected in the evaluation dynamics next week.

Further information on correlation between the market prices and the Mabux Digital Benchmark can be found in the Digital Bunker prices at Mabux.com.

According to the latest report by DNV, 49 new ship commands with alternative fuel were recorded in April, including two hydrogen ships the first of this order since June 2024. Despite a decline in the entire new building activities, alternative fuel orders rose by 5%compared to the year. Of these, 24 methanol were driven and 20 lngs driven. Methanol orders were mainly in the sector of containers (14) and the Ropax (9) with a tanker contract. LNG orders were distributed via container ships (16), cruise (2) and ropax (2). DNV underlines an increased diversification in the introduction of alternative fuel, with the ropax, the cruise and other segments grow. The increase in methanol and LNG orders reflects a shift in strategies for sustainable fuels, whereby methanol is imposed after a slow start to the year and the increase in LNG profits, especially in the container sector. DNV notes that shipowners prioritize flexibility, fuel availability and segment -specific needs in their decision -making.

We assume that the global bunker market will probably maintain its potential for another moderate upward trend next week.
Source: from Sergey Ivanov, Director, Mabux