Trump's decision to raise Syria sanctions drives dreams of economic revival | Political news

Optimism is in abundance in Syria. The unexpected decision by US President Donald Trump to raise sanctions on the country that was announced in Riyadh on Tuesday is a relief for the Syrians. They hope that the move to Syria will be integrated back to the global economy and will bring urgently needed investments to a country that tries to recover from more than 50 years of dynastic family rule and an almost 14-year war.

The effects of Trump's statement, which he would give Syria after the fall of December of Bashar al-Assad “an opportunity for size”, had an almost immediate effect, since the Syrian pound against the US dollar intensified by about 25 percent, which increased by economic difficulties.

“The lifting of sanctions on Syria is a fundamental turning point,” Ibrahim Nafi Qushji, economist and banking expert, told Al Jazera. “The Syrian economy will switch from interaction with developing countries to integrated integration into more developed transition, which may significantly redesign the trade and investment relationships.”

Complex sanctions

While the announcement will probably lead to some upcoming progress, the sanction removal still has some stumbling blocks, analysts and experts Al Jazera said.

The US sanctions on Syria date from 1979, when the country called President Hafez al-Assad-Bashar's father-one “state terror sponsor”. In recent years, additional sanctions on the state and individuals who have been connected to both the regime and the opposition, including the current President Ahmed al-Sharaa, have become the result of his earlier cooperation with al-Qaida.

“There are an entire building with complex sanctions,” said Vittorio Maresca di Serracapriola, sanction manager analyst for Karam Shaar Advisory Limited, a consulting company with a focus on the political economy of the Middle East, said Al Jazera.

Analysts said that Trump could remove certain sanctions from executive order, while some “foreign terrorist organizations” (FTO) could be removed by US Foreign Minister Marco Rubio. However, other sanctions can be more complicated to end.

According to Maresca di Serracapriola, there are also a number of export controls, executive regulations to the banking sector and actions that have been adopted by the US Congress.

“It's a big moment for the country,” said Maresca di Serracapriola. “Of course, sanctions are very technical and complicated instruments, so it is still unclear how the US government will be able to implement what it promised.”

There are also questions about the timeline. The economic situation for many Syrians is bad, with 90 percent of the population living in poverty and, according to the United Nations, around 25 percent are unemployed. The new Syrian authority is subject to extreme economic pressure, while sometimes there are difficulties to exercise their authority and to offer security all over the country.

Trump's decision will be a welcome recovery, but the Syrians may have to wait for the sanctions to be facilitated. Analysts said that the changes would be gradually made and could take up to a year before “tangible results” are seen.

The sanction relief alone will not be enough. Analysts found that Syria still needs bank reforms to comply with the international surveillance lists. There must also be incentives from the USA and other international actors to build trust among private investors who want to invest in the future of Syria.

“The achievement of long -term growth requires the implementation of internal economic reforms, including the improvement of the business environment, the improvement of financial transparency and the development of productive sectors to ensure that the Syrian economy benefits effectively from global opportunities,” said Qushji. “The abolition of economic sanctions on Syria is a first step towards restructuring the economy, but it requires reform policies that focus on sustainable development and global economic integration to ensure real and productive relaxation.”

Trump meets Al-Sharaa

For months, everyone from the new leadership, analysts and international actors of Syria have had a new leadership that there is an urgent need for sanctions to relief. But the United States has previously taken on an inflexible attitude against the government of al-Sharaa because perceived connections to violence and armed groups.

However, regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye have built up strong relationships with the new government in Damascus. Before Trump's statements on Tuesday, several analysts Al Jazera announced that the Syrian sanctions reliefs were not on the agenda for the USA or the Gulf States, which Trump visited during his three-country tour, are on the agenda.

Since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8th, the United States has chosen a careful and temporarily contradictory approach to the new authority of Syria.

On March 9, US Foreign Minister Marco Rubio condemned the new government of Syria to prevent sectarian violence and massacre in the country's coastal region. But three days later, Rubio praised the agreement between the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Powers (SDF) and the Syrian central government in Damascus, which would allegedly integrate the SDF into state institutions.

Previously, the United States provided Syria a list of requirements that included the destruction of the remaining chemical weapons, cooperation with “fighting terrorism” and the removal of foreign fighters from high -ranking roles in the new government or in the military. There were also suggestions that Syria held a Trump tower deal in Damascus and that Trump wanted relationships between Syria and Israel before any sanction relief.

But everything had changed until Tuesday evening. Trump announced that he would remove sanctions against Syria without conditions.

“The most important focus here is that it is more of a Saudi US contract than something between the United States and Syria,” Rob Geist Pinfold, lecturer for defense studies at King's College in London.

Then Trump and Al-Sharaa met on Wednesday morning a little more than half an hour in the presence of Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Turkiyes President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was called. Trump seemed to like the meeting.

With reporters on Air Force One on the way to Doha, Trump al-Sharaa called a “young, attractive guy, hard guy strong past. Very strong past. Fighter”.

After the talks, the White House published a list of topics that Trump discussed with al-Sharaa. This included some of the previous US claims on Syria, e.g. But Trump also brought Syria to the knowledge of Israel and took over Isil at home in northern Syria.

“This does not seem to be a prerequisites, but they could slow down lifting [of sanctions]“Natasha Hall, Senior Fellow with the Middle East program in the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Al Jazera.