The future of organized crime beyond the Russo-Ukrainian War

Since the conflict in Ukraine approaches a possible turning point, “Crime and peace: The future of organized crime beyond the Russian-Ukrainian War ' Research the post-conflict risks and changes that can influence the criminal underworld in Ukraine, Russia and beyond.

The report is based on three years of research by GI-TOCS Eurasia Observatory and offers a thematic risk assessment in which five key areas are addressed: people, control, specialist knowledge, hardware and money. Every topic reflects how new opportunities for organized crimes are generated in the event of an armistice or peace agreement.

Key results show that:

• Veterans, IDPs, refugees and economic difficulties are susceptible to the cessation of illegal economies, from drug and sex trade to ICT-capable fraud and recruitment in organized crimes.
• The end of war law in Ukraine can reduce state control and enable criminal networks to expand. As soon as the fights stop, there is a risk of reunification of the Russian and Ukrainian shelves in the context of new leadership structures.
• The expertise created by war, including drones and special operations, could revolutionize the methods and scope of organized crime.
• Excess military hardware risks that drive global arms trade and possibly feed conflicts in Africa, in the Middle East and Latin America.
• If it is poorly managed and monitored, reconstruction financing could increase corruption, exploitation and blackmail of workers. Criminals can also try to wash illegal means to the construction and the real estate sector.

The report emphasizes that political decision -makers now have to act in order to alleviate these emerging risks. The short statements of conflicts in past conflicts in the Balkans, Latin America and Africa requires targeted strategies to prevent the spread of post -war crime and to preserve the rule of law. When peace negotiations progress and geopolitical orientations change, it was never more critical to understand the criminal landscape in the shade of the war.