White house: 9 million Americans could lose health insurance without a Trump budget bill

The White House published a study on Saturday, which was estimated that 8.2 to 9.2 million other Americans could be without health insurance due to a subsequent recession if President Donald Trump is not adopted in the budget.

The statement comes from a memo of the White Household Consultant with the title “Health insurance opportunities if 2025 proposed budget care law is not adopted.”

The investigation assumes that the United States had about 27 million people in 2025. If the budget bill is not adopted, this could increase to around 36 million people non -insured, far closer to the approximately 50 million people who were not insured before the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare, in 2010, according to the Memo Act.

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The memo states that the estimate “is based on the assumption that states that have expanded Medicaid are withdrawn with relatively generous authorization in order to meet the balanced budget requirements and try to ensure more support for unemployed during a difficult recession”. It also qualifies its conclusions by the analysis of “no political countermeasures” that the White House describes as a “very unlikely but plausible worse case”.

The White House projects that the course of the Trump tax cuts from 2017 in 2026 and other shocks would trigger a “medium to severe recession”. The economic advisors report that a “large recession” would lead to a higher round of individual taxes due to higher individual taxes, lower investments in small businesses and settings, global trust shock, including the concerns regarding the competitiveness of US dollars and the deflation of the dollard deflation.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump dances on October 15, 2024 in Atlanta at a campaign organizer in the Cobb Energy Performing Arts Center. (AP Photo/John Bazemore, file)

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According to the “upper” assessment of the advisor to the effects of non -extension of the Trump tax reductions, the US BIP could be completed by about 4% over two years -similar to the recession from 2008. Unemployment could increase by four percentage points, which leads to around 6.5 million loss of work. Of these 6.5 million job losses, 60% had the insurance sponsored by employers, so that the White House carried out around 3.9 million people and are therefore not insured.

The memo also expects a loss of individual and market protection, since those who already have insurance sponsored without employers can no longer afford to take out insurance themselves. The White House expects a decrease of 15% from around 22 million in 2026 to around 3.3 million lost covers.

The spokesman for House, Mike Johnson, R-La. (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr., File)

Without the adoption of the “large, beautiful calculation”, Medicaid and ACA -Subentened plan enrollment could experience 10% enrollment of bikes, which means that around 500,000 to 1 million people are lost or not preserved, according to the memo. According to the White House, the 2017 Trump tax reductions expiry would disproportionately influence non-state, gig workers and early pensioners. The advisors assess that individuals in this working class could no longer pay insurance coverage due to the employer, which leads to 500,000 to 1 million insurance loss in “endangered segments”.

The spokesman for the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, R-La.

The 1,116-page invoice includes tax reductions of more than $ 5 trillion, costs, some of which would compensate for the tax code by cuts and other changes and make tax cuts from Trump's first term.

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It also recognizes many promises of Trump's campaigns, including temporarily ending taxes for overtime and tips for many employees, a new tax capacity of $ 10,000 for car loan interest for cars American cars and even a new tax-free “Maga account” that would contribute $ 1,000 in its second term.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.