Realag at the weekend: What is the trend in the seasonal markets

What trends in the seasonal markets and more on Realag at the weekend.

Shaun Haney is talking to Chuck Penner from Leftfield Commodity Research.

They talk about how some plant builders grow best in certain seasons. Haney warns that we have to think about the markets and agriculture at the same time.

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Listen to Chuck Penner about seasonal market trends:

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Shaun Haney: The stock market focuses extremely on the effects of tariffs. How does the raw material market react to all of this at the moment?

Chuck Penner: It may be a bit in a time of wishful thinking or hope, all of this simply disappears. For the most part, our raw materials that we deal with the USA are still under the United States Mexico-Kanada agreements (USMCA) or that of Canada State-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)-after which country they are still under this agreement.

We were able to avoid this largely for AG raw materials. That can always change. I assume that the worst of turbulence has passed and is now taking place more logical and so on. I hope for this front, we see how it fades.

China is still a small game card. Some people have proposed that China will scale the tariffs for peas and rapeseed and so on. This is more wishful thinking than anything else.

There is always the possibility that you also hit some tariffs on rapeseed seeds.

For the most part, the markets are more about the basics, and now we are coming to the weather season for many of these plants. There is simply a lot more sums on that. This does not mean that this has disappeared completely, but we can think about the things we normally think about.

What do the basics about the wider market tell us?

Penner: We really watch what's going on.

We start on the wheat market, we observe what is going on at the Winter Wheat market, then we see that the spring wheat harvest and so on.

There is concern about drought. I looked at a map of Westkanada. The northern level of the prairies has had no rain in the last 30 days and a little earlier a year it was already drier.

It is not a upcoming problem, but it's a problem. Northern Us, Montana, especially Ostmontana, West -north Dakota, also dry out.

The things that are specific to the plants that we grow here are a little more prominent. Here, too, we are currently being sowing, so you can't really kill the harvest yet. And so we hope for the best, but these are things we see.

The US plant development was pretty healthy.

Penner: People are over the average over “Oh, corn planting.” You can invent this in one afternoon. It's not a big deal.

But people like me need something we can talk about. That is why we adhere to unimportant statistics and try to move the markets or say that the markets move there if they know that there are other things.

You have a great seasonality and we are on the last day in April. What does that tell us about it, where we go from here?

Penner: Each harvest has a different seasonal pattern, and so we follow differently.

There are some, such as Durham in January, and start to slide lower until it hits.

Others such as spring wheat or rapeseed or red lentils, for example there is a real pattern for a spring summit in the seasonal.

Now spring wheat has not moved at all. The basis has improved, but spring wheat has not improved significantly in the spring months.

Canola has, red lenses were also pretty flat.

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But one of the universals for basically all plants is that the prices, as soon as they last arrived at the beginning of June, simply slide in summer.

Everyone goes bananas again and thinks: “Oh, it is a bit terribly wrong with the market and and why does it do it?”

Well, it does every summer. If there are people who have to carry out prices, they probably want to do this sooner rather than later, as this seasonal trend is almost inevitable.

I mean, 2021/2022 may be the exception. Even then, it started to lose weight. And when the drought really entered, it jumped off pretty quickly. It happens every year.

This looks very strong even in Canola, and there are really good reasons that rapeseed is strong. There are close supplies and we still move and crush, export and crush a really good clip and so on.

There are really good reasons to assume that the market will stay higher until whenever, but it won't do it. There are no guarantees, but I can almost guarantee that one can be delayed at some, as they can be delayed at some point or two or two, and it may not be a big dip, but it will do it again at some point.