Why College Football Playoff Expansion Realks trends in the direction of a 16-team clip

When the conference commissioner monitor the post -season debate via the next for College Football Playoffs, an expansion of the 2026 clip has been practically a clear conclusion for months.

The initial focus of the discussions was a change from 12 to 14 teams, with a 16-team field being a border option, mainly due to an annoying problem: When would four more playoff games take place in the early round?

Now 16 seems to be the sweet spot because access trumps everything else when it comes to the playoffs. Just like when CFP architects jumped from four to twelve teams during the first expansion discussions, it is usually an idea that everyone can support.

After Big Tony Petiti apparently received four automatic qualification games (AQS) for his conference – and the SEC Commissioner Greg Saney, who does not violently push back, the other members of the group seem to build a format as well as they can.

“Everyone else in the room feels like several AQs for conferences for an invitation,” said a person who is involved in the discussions.

The athlete spoke to seven people who have been involved in the discussions of the CFP Management Committee in the past five months. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because nobody was authorized to speak publicly about what has developed into another drawn and increasingly more complicated CFP negotiations.

“It is held hostage,” said another person.

The full administrative committee, which includes the 10 -football Bowl subdividing conference commissioner and the notre athletic Director Pete Bevacqua, will be associated again this week for a conference call. The sources say that it is possible that the committee could finally decide how the schools sow for the 12 team playoffs this season-namely a change to seeds that correspond to the ranking of the selection committee instead of being guaranteed for conference champions.

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips stated last week that he could just sow. The current CFP agreement requires a unanimous approval within the administrative committee to create changes to the format.

The next personal meeting of the committee, its fourth since the state of Ohio, who defeated Notre Dame to win the first 12 team playoff in January, is planned in mid-June. While the deadlines for CFP decisions over the years have largely been theoretical, all participants believe that it is ideal to determine a format for the 2026 season before the start of the 2025 season.

Ultimately, the determination of the Playoff format for 2026 and, moreover, the leaders of the Power 4 conferences will fall: Petiti, Saney, Phillips and the Big 12 from Brett Yormark. A meeting of these four in New York at the beginning of this month heated up the idea of ​​a 16-team field because the Big 12 and ACC want to protect their access and brands.

As early as the spring of 2024, the Big Ten contained the idea of ​​a 14-team CFP, which contained four AQs for the Big Ten and Sec, two for the Big 12 and one ACC, one for the highest champion from the six other FBS conferences and a point that would essentially be a bid for the Largen. The spot for a large spot creates a way for independent emergency lady to qualify by receiving a high rank from the selection committee.

Saney and SEC administrators have also supported the securing of automatic access, and, despite the skepticism of the rest of the administrative committee, Petiti has remained a decision. At a joint meeting between the Sec and Big Ten in New Orleans in February, Petiti spoke about the connection between the path to the playoff and the regular season.

“How you qualify for the post -season has a regular season or how you qualify for the post -season, which factors that you consider important,” said Petiti. “I think that informs the way you think about the regular season, they are only switched on. They are all tied together, right?”

Petiti wants a way that is less based on the subjective decisions of the selection committee. At the moment, his opinion is more important.

The new CFP agreement, which comes into force in 2026, gives the Big Ten and the SEC much more to determine the future of the format. It also guarantees these conferences that come about 58 percent of the CFP turnover over the six-year $ 7.8 billion contract with ESPN next year.

Among the full group there was a certain mood that the potential for public and political opposite reactions would prevent the Big Ten and the SEC from making an AQ-disturbing CFP model. ESPN officers have also caution when it comes to expansion and AQs, for fear that the changes could have a negative impact on the regular season and the playoff.

Nevertheless, the AQs stay on the table and the number of teams continues to grow.

Both the Big Ten and the Sec have spoken internally about using the AQs to reinterpret their championship weekends, which would possibly keep more of their teams in the CFP race deeper into the season.

“How do we make sure that our fans are engaged?” Texas A&M ad trev Alberts told The athlete in April. Alberts was previously in the big ten in Nebraska before taking over at the Sec school last year.

Petiti has set up the big ten athletic directors to create two games for the championship weekend to determine which of the league teams receive at least two of these automatic offers. The participants of the championship game would qualify for two AQs, while the teams would take third place in sixth place for the other two.

The BIG 12 and ACC with fewer AQs would be more restricted than they could expand their championship weekends. It is even more important that half the AQs like the Big Ten and the SEC creates a big perception problem for the leagues and sends a message to recruits and potential business partners that ACC and BIG 12 are half as good as the top level of college football.

The growth of the field to 16 would open a possible alternative to the 4-4-2-2-1-1 plan by giving the BIG 12 and ACC an additional automatic BID, but with provisions. The third AQs of BIG 12 and ACC in a 4-4-3-1-1 model would have to achieve a minimal selection commite ranking-as possible No. 18- to reach the playoffs. If not, these would be too large, which are open to teams of a conference.

The qualification features may only apply to ACC and BIG 12, but at the moment nothing is certain, especially the question of when additional playoff games should be staged.

“Even if we go to 14, we will encounter challenges where to play the games,” said a third person.

A 14-team clip would have removed two byes in the first round and added two games for the first weekend of the playoff, the third weekend in December. This is two weeks after the weekend of the conference championship, in which each team has become free at least one week and left the army and navy for themselves on the second weekend in December, as well as the tradition for the rivalry of the Service Academy.

On the opening weekend there is no obvious place for two more games that would offer a desirable, exclusive television window. Last year, Notre Dame-Indiana started the first 12-team CFP on Friday evening. A triplet header followed on Saturday, starting at 12 p.m. ET and started directly with two NFL games in the late season.

In a 16-team bracket, there is an alternative to eliminate eight games in the first round this weekend. This approach is highly unlikely. It is more likely that the CFP would start a week earlier on the traditionally army navy weekend.

The two best seeds would still bring byes to the quarter -finals.

“You can play the games at any time, but there is no way to maximize the television audience,” said a fourth person.

Remarkable: The new contract of the CFP with ESPN does not require that the network for more inventory pays beyond the 11 games that are required for a field 12 teams.

All of these problems seem to be secondary. If the haggling continues through access, one thing seems to be clear when it comes to the CFP: Adding more teams will be part of the resolution.

(Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)