Weather pattern trends warmer and drier for the rest of the May

Jackson, Wyo. – Last week in Jackson Hole with lower normal temperatures was cool and wet. However, the cool spell begins to break with high temperatures that warm up in the 1960s until the end of this week and in the 1970s.

Recent weather conditions

The first two weeks in May were warmer than normal, but last week was wet and cold. Most areas have rained between one to two inches in the last seven days.

From 2nd to May 12th, the high temperature of Jackson exceeded over 60 ° every day and the high temperature above 70 ° at seven of these 11 days. But just when they thought that summer was here, the atmosphere reminded us that it is still in Wyoming.

From May 13th to 20th, the high temperature reached only 60 ° in one day and on the other seven days below 60 °. The high temperature in Jackson did not rose from the 40s over three days.

Overall, the temperatures in May are still 1.9º above the normal value, but the last week was consistently below average. The average high and low in May in May is 61º and 33 ° for perspective, although the average values ​​increase to 66 ° and 37º by May 31.

Most of the past week we saw scattered light rain showers, but on Saturday and Saturday evening there was a difficult precipitation event in Jackson Hole Valley. The city of Jackson recorded 1.18 inch rainfall during a period of 24 hours, which most we saw in 24 hours this year.

In fact, this was the highest one -day rainfall in the city of Jackson since March 2, 2024, when we received 1.30 inches (and 16 inch snow) in 24 hours.

The mountains have also received several snow shots in this pattern. In view of the cooler temperatures, the snow melting slowed down last week compared to previous weeks. The snow cover in the upper snake flow basin, which comprises the tetons, is currently 88% of the average.

Upcoming weather pattern

Wednesday mainly has sunny sky and persistent cool temperatures. We will break out of this cool snapshot later a week because a high -pressure comb from the south is built up.

From Thursday to Sunday, the high temperatures will increase daily until the 1960s, which is close to the average for this time of year.

The pattern also starts to dry out, but there are some minor exceptions.

A disturbance north of our area takes place on Thursday, which leads to an easy chance after afternoon shower and thunderstorms. The available moisture currently looks like a restrictive factor, but if moisture traffic is slightly higher than expected, our chance of storms in the afternoon would increase.

Another weak disturbance with a slightly higher moisture mirror will arrive on Saturday, which leads to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Reflection quantities should be easy, but cloud-to-ground flash is possible. If you have plans outdoors.

A significant warming up with high highs in the 70s will take on Monday. Most of the next week is expected that the heights will also be in the 70s.

Sunday and Monday have only an easy chance of showering/thunderstorms in the afternoon. However, thunderstorm chances can increase around the middle of the next week, as a stronger disorder in the northwest of the Pacific and in the north of Rockies is supposed to pursue.

Here is the 7-day precipitation projection from the European ensemble model, which indicates slight amounts that are expected for western Wyoming, while Ostwyoming is getting more difficult to rain.

If you look further out, it is expected that a high pressure is determined as a dominant pattern in the last days of May and the first Juni days with above the ordinary temperatures and the expected precipitation temperatures and expected rainfall.

Summer weather view

Seasonal prospects should always be taken with a grain of salt because there are many factors that cannot be expected weeks or months in advance. However, there are some factors that we can see that can give us some indications, which may be more or less likely, even if it only plays the chances of one or the other easily.

If we go on the way in the summer of 2025, we will have the neutral conditions, which means that neither El Nino nor La Nina are expected. Neutral summer prefer high-pressure riding over the western United States, more than a normal summer that prefers the ordinary temperatures.

Another factor that can influence the summer weather is the snow cover over the southern Rocky Mountains – especially Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona.

The snow packaging on May 1 was far below the normal value in this region. This increases the likelihood of an early and strong subtropical high -pressure ridge that develops over the southwest and moves north, since more solar energy is heated in May/June instead of melting the mountain snowpack (which is less than usual).

However, an early and strong subtropical high -pressure comb over the southwest leads to a stronger monsoon in the southwest, as winds clockwise around the high -pressure ridge in July and August from the Gulf of Mexico and South Pacific in the southwest in the southwest and August. Moisture intrusions can also reach western Wyoming.

For Jackson Hole and Western Wyoming, the Big -Picture -Setup prefers a hotter and drier than normal early summer in June and early July as well as a fairly active monsoon at the end of July and August, which can possibly lead to heavier stalls and more frequent thunderstorms.

September tends to go in close neutral + low southern Rocky Mountains Snow Deck years with regard to precipitation materials. Therefore, trust is lower compared to June, July and August.

Overall, the upper-standard temperatures for most of the summer are preferred, with the only exception if August, if almost normal (or at least the same probability of over or below normal temperatures) are favored during the highlight of the monsoon.

A hot and dry start to the summer could possibly lead to an active fire season in Western Wyoming. However, if we experienced an active monsoon with mid to late summer with normal rainfall, this could help. At the same time, an increased flash could also lead to fires, so that it is a double -edged sword when it comes to the monsoon moisture.

Unfortunately, an active fire period is projected in the northwest of Pacific, where under normal snow and drought conditions as well as an even stronger signal indicate over normal summer temperatures. This increases our risk of smoke traffic to our area.

But I will remember a memory that seasonal forecasts, although it is interesting, still contain an inherent level of low trust (much more than short to medium -term weather forecasts), so that everything is possible.

Alan Smith, meteorologist