FBI Crime Analyst notes

Washington, DC -A new analysis of the FBI data of the criminal analyst, Jeff Asher, showed that large police stations in the United States have heard of officers continued after several years, has only regained a few again since 2019.

Asher, who put together the data from more than 9,900 departments nationwide, finds that most police authorities have shrunk according to Covid-19 and the largest departments in 2023 continued-with a lower lead. He identified 39 departments that employed at least 1,000 civil servants in 2019 and pursued their HR department until 2024. Of these, 29 fewer civil servants had fewer officials than five years earlier. A total of 22 departments lost more than 100 civil servants during this period.

The report emphasizes that the steepest declines between 2019 and 2022 occurred, a period that is characterized by pandemic disorders and nationwide protests against police work. From 2022 to 2024 the decline rate slowed down, but the staff is largely a plateau, especially in large cities. “Large cities have fewer officers, but for the most part they no longer shrink,” writes Asher.

In addition to the stagnating numbers, the departments are continuous recruitment and binding problems. In a report 2023 of the international association of police chiefs (IACP), 78% of the authorities surveyed difficulties in recruiting qualified candidates, and 65% gave over higher wear points. These figures indicate deeper structural challenges that go beyond the number of main and small writing.

For example, the New York police department lost about 3,250 civil servants between 2019 and 2023. In 2024 she lost only nine – a trend that interprets asher as a stabilization than as a relaxation. Similar patterns were observed in San Francisco, Minneapolis and Winston-Salem. Departments in which the reduction of the workforce of 18 to 33 percent was drawn have been under the previous season baselines.

While the largest urban forces remain stagnated, Asher is noticeable in a modest growth in smaller and medium -sized departments. Many agencies that look after cities with population groups under 250,000 and counties with large non -legal areas recorded the increases in 2023 and 2024.

Data at the district level indicate that suburban and rural authorities may absorb civil servants who leave big cities. “More granularity is needed, but … many officers in whom the agencies of the big city had not left the job; they simply went into calmer cities and counties,” explains Asher. His analysis suggests that this displacement does not reflect a loss of interest in care for law enforcement authorities, but a migration of urban departments that deal with higher stress and a larger public examination.

Nevertheless, these profits have little effect to influence the national sums. Asher points out that agencies that serve jurks with over 100,000 people make up less than 5% of all departments, but employ over 55% of the country's officials. Therefore, the growth of smaller jurisdiction has a limited influence on the entire personnel trends.

Among the departments, the cities with population groups over 1 million, 11 out of 13, are even smaller than in 2019. This includes Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston – in the ongoing political debates on police work and the financing of public security continue to influence the attitude and commitment.

Data record 2024 is a return to more complete national figures after the transition from FBI 2021 to the national incident-based reporting system (NIBRS) of the national incident temporarily disrupted the extensive data acquisition. Asher's report only comes from agencies that consistently submitted personnel data in 2019, 2022, 2023 and 2024 to maintain precise comparisons.

In summary, it can be said that the report comes to the conclusion that large city departments “stopped shrinking”, but show no signs of a sensible regrowth. In the meantime, suburban authorities and district authorities can slowly absorb the displaced workforce-to change the geography of American police work.

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