Would shorter prison sentences “trigger a wave of crime”? Here is what the evidence says

The final report of the independent review of the conviction has proposed the most important reform of the conviction and punishment in England and Wales since the 1990s.

The review under the chair of the former conservative Minister of Justice David Gauke requires a number of changes to eliminate the crisis of overcrowding in prisons. This includes fewer and shorter prison terms, improved opportunities for early release based on good behavior and more use of community sets.

In principle, the government has already accepted most recommendations, although many laws require to put them into force. The Minister of Justice Shabana Mahmood said that the most serious offenders are not entitled to an earlier release as part of the proposals.

The prisons in England and Wales have been in or almost capacity for several years and often exceed their safe capacity. Official data show that the current prison population for adults is estimated at around 87,700 compared to a maximum operating capacity of around 88,800. However, the maximum capacity figures are only recorded annually, and the poor conditions of the prison area mean that the usable maximum is often lower at a certain point in time.

Without reforms for conviction, the prison population should increase up to 105,000 by 2029.

In September 2024, the overcrowding of the prison led to an early publication of around 1,700 prisoners who had convicted less than five years who had served 40% of their prison sentence. Usually, they would only be entitled after an early release until they had served 50% of their sentences.

The Gauke check was commissioned to create a more sustainable solution to prevent further emergency measures. However, both the review and the emergency measures have been criticized, namely that dangerous offenders are released and municipalities and victims are at risk. The Shadow Minister of the Interior Robert Jenrick claimed that the recent proposals “trigger a wave of crime”.

Will shorter sentences make the communities less secure?

What do the evidence say?

A core recommendation is that custody should only be used as the last resort. It only requires sentences of less than 12 months in exceptional cases, for example in exceptional cases where it is known that the perpetrator is a high risk of a specific victim, although he was convicted of less serious crime.

Research on short -term prison terms shows that it is ineffective for several reasons. Short prison terms are disproportionately expensive, especially compared to the sentences in the community. The perpetrators who serve them have committed relatively minor crimes, so a different risk than in exceptional cases.

Perhaps the most significant knowledge is the fact that the shorter the sentence is, the higher the repetition rate. Reupply is around 55% for prisoners who were convicted of less than 12 months compared to a total rate of 27.5%. If the revival can be reduced by more effective sentences, the municipalities are safer.

Another important proposal is the “deserved progress model”. Below are most prisoners (with the exception of those who were convicted of defined sexual or violent crimes) after a third of their prison sentence. You must have dealt constructively with the prison regime.

They would then be intensively supervised by probation services in the community until they served two thirds of their prison sentence. After that they would not be actively monitored.

Prisoners who are not constructive would only have been entitled to expose in half of their prison sentence. As part of the early guideline policy presented in September 2024, these prisoners would be released after they had only born 40% of their punishments.

There is a well -founded proof of incentives for good behavior in prison instead of simply punishing bad behavior. It is shown that they help prisoners to develop a feeling of autonomy and accountability for their actions. This can help you not burden yourself again if you are popular again after publication.

A focus on effective rehabilitation and not only on punishment goes through the review. For example, recommendations for improved and targeted drug abuse and mental treatment.

There are widespread evidence of jurisdiction that indicate that a focus on rehabilitation and no longer imprisonment reduces the overall crime and makes the communities safer. It also makes economic sense.

The chief inspector of prisons, Charlie Taylor, made it clear in his most recent annual report in September 2024 that a fundamental reorientation of prisons in the direction of rehabilitation is necessary to reduce overall crime.

The Howard League for penalty reforms also welcomed the proposals to check the conviction.

Issue

Sacrifice groups have concerns about the risk of sexual offenders or domestic abusers who are also released in the current regime. The review recommends strengthening protection for victims, for example by expanding specialists for domestic abuse courts and the marking of all violent offenders against women and girls.

Studies for using voluntary chemical castration for serious sex offenders are increasingly recommended for controversy. The Minister of Justice is reported that the use of mandatory chemical castration is used.

Other questions are after the implementation of the reforms, not least how they are financed in the current economic climate. The chief inspector of the probation, Martin Jones, has warned that the suggestions in the Gauke check would be “catastrophic” without better financing and other reforms in the probation service. The review recommends investing in the tense probation service and bringing organizations of the third sector to support.

These are ambitious reforms that would require a considerable investment in the probation service, prisons, rehabilitation and technology. There are also emerging human rights concerns regarding the acceptance of advanced AI by trial newspaper services, as is recommended in the review.

Ultimately, there is hardly any evidence that less prisoners and shorter punishments will make the communities less secure. It is an ineffective rehabilitation that leads to repetition, which leads to considerable social and economic costs.

Daniel Alge is a lecturer in criminology and criminal justice at Brunel University of London.

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